Well folks, sadly the season is coming to an end. However, isn’t it always great to save the best for last? There’s nothing quite like the 5th Major in my eyes. Yes, even though its widely known as the Players tournament, I, however, believe it’s the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia. The top 30 in FedEx Cup points head to ELGC for one last jamboree before the Ryder Cup rosters are selected.
This week, as mentioned above is the Tour Championship and it’s a very unique tournament with the biggest purse of the year. Unlike the typical 72-hole stroke play tournaments we are used to seeing, the Tour Championship has a starting stroke format that rewards the top players in the FedEx Cup playoffs. Some may be asking, how does the starting stroke format work? Well, they take the top players and start at a specific number under par rewarding them for their consistently good play throughout the season. For example, Scottie Scheffler is ranked #1 on the FedEx Cup Points list with one tournament to play. He’ll start at -10 under par. Hovland comes out at #2 in the points list and will start at -8 under par. So on and so forth.
Due to this format and only being the top-30 golfers in the playoffs, it’s very hard to see anyone other than Scottie (+150), Rory (+350), Hovland (+500) and Rahm (+700) winning the tournament. In fact, statistically it would be very challenging for any of the other 26 golfers to win the Tour Championship.
Transitioning into a betting perspective, I have 4 bets this week that I really enjoy and will be playing. Two of which will be with starting strokes included and two of them will not be as if everyone starts at E par.
SammyStats10K Best Bets
Viktor Hovland Outright Winner (+525) with Starting Strokes
Hovland is coming off an historical round at the BMW Championship shooting a course record 61 on Sunday leading him to the trophy. He has his game in just about the best shape heading into the final week of the season and into the upcoming Ryder Cup. He starts 2 strokes back from Scottie and I feel this number should be around +300 with how he’s recently been playing. Therefore, I will gladly take him at +525 to win the Tour Championship.
Jon Rahm Outright Winner (+750) with Starting Strokes
Rahm starts the week at -6 under par, (4 strokes off the lead). For me, this is just about the furthest someone can close the gap and win the tournament with the exception of Rory. Rahm has struggled recently in the FedEx Cup Playoffs. However, he’s in a great position and just needs to have a solid week in order to win. We’ve seen JR win countless tournaments by more than 4 strokes. Rahm at +750 is just too good to pass up on. All it takes is a couple over from Scottie and a couple under from Rahm to get them tied. 72 Holes is plenty of golf to close that gap.
Brian Harman Outright Winner (+2800) Without Starting Strokes
Jumping on Harman to have the lowest week as if everyone is starting at E par. Harman with yet another top-10 finish last week has been just lights out. I like taking a couple of these (Without Starting Strokes) bets due to the value given. Harman has showed he can compete on any stage as we recently witnessed him win the Open. I’ll take a shot with him at 28/1 to have the lowest round of the week.
Tom Kim Outright Winner (+2500) Without Starting Strokes
Tom’s coming off a 14-under weekend last week at the BMW and this course actually suits his game quite nicely. Precision and accuracy are needed to plot your way around the course and compete well. Kim has shown with his yearly stats that he can have success at East Lake. He has all the weapons to go low and show why he’s one of the best golfers on tour. Being at +2500, I’ll gladly take a stab at TK this week.
As Always, Enjoy the Tour Championship & Always Wager Responsibly.