TCU VS Georgia for the National Championship… Just like we all expected when the year started right? I’m excited for this game, but the sadness of having no College Football to watch is already creeping over me. Obviously, I’ll give you my best bets for the game this Monday, but before we do lets take a “quick” look at how TCU & Georgia won there semi-finals games.
TCU VS MICHIGANThe money I would pay to be in a Michigan bar during this first quarter… Michigan looked like it was going to strike first getting all the way to goal line before TCU was able to sack them on a 4th and goal. Michigan would deliver the first score of the game on there next drive, only problem was it went the wrong way.
If being down 7-0 didn’t wake up Michigan,14-0 sure did.The 2nd quarter is when all the fun started. All the momentum seemed to have switched to Michigan after they were able to get on the board with a FG. TCU threw a INT on the first play setting up Michigan at mid field. Michigan needed two plays on there next drive. 50 yard throw to the one (called back TD). Followed up by a goal line fumble. If you haven’t seen the two plays here ya go.
Like I said, I really wish I was at a Michigan Bar. At half the score was 21-6, and TCU was starting to feel the magic.
2nd HalfI’m not going to be able to summarize the second half without this blog being a mile long. At the time I barely knew what was happening. 69 POINTS in the 2nd half. 44 in the third. INSANITY. Instead of showing you every scoring play, I’ll show you my favorite. Who doesn’t love a good ole flea flicker?
This cut the lead to 5, but after the 3rd, Michigan trailed by 11.
Michigan scored quickly in the 4th and after securing the 2PT Conversation, they trailed by only three. Each time Michigan would get close, TCU would find a way to answer which is exactly what they did on there next drive.
DAGGER. Michigan was able to cut it to 6, but never was close to having a chance to win it. TCU proves they were meant to be here, while Michigan shows they only care about beating Ohio State. Onto the next game.
Ohio State Vs GeorgiaGame #2 had big shoes to fill, and they filled it well. The first two drives didn’t produce any points, but 6/8 drives would go on to be TD’s. After the first we had a score of 7-7, followed by a second quarter that combined for 38 points and gave Ohio State a 28-24 lead heading into the half.
Ohio State carried all the momentum into the second half, forcing a three and out on the opening drive. The Buckeyes would then drive the field, and score a TD extending there lead to 11. They would also convert a FG later in the quarter, giving themselves a 14 point lead heading into the 4th quarter.
You don’t become a dynasty in any sport without finding yourselves in moments where you need to step up. Georgia did exactly that in the 4th quarter of this game. After a early FG to cut the lead to 11, Georgia’s defense got their offense the ball back with momentum on their side. 76 Yards, 1 Play, 3 Point game.
Can you get more wide open then this?
Ohio State extended the lead to 6, giving the ball back to Georgia with 2:40 on the clock. 25 year old Stetson Bennett only needed 5 plays to go 72 yards, giving Georgia their first lead since 24-21.
One problem, you gave CJ Stroud WAYYYY to much time to get his team into FG range. He was able to give them a 50 yard shot for the win, which was a tad bit off.
Did he end the year with that kick, or start the year off with that kick?
National Championship Best Bets
Everyone expected Georgia to be here, but TCU one win away from a national championship? Just look at there expectations going into week 1.
Georgia currently is -12, with the O/U being set at 63. If you’re sitting there considering not placing a bet, just do it. Fade me or ride with me, it’s the last CFB game until next August. You will be wishing for these days when you’re forced to bet on baseball, trust me.
1. Under 63, -110 (1U), U31.5 1st Half (.5U)
Betting the under is never fun, but 63 points seems like way too many even with both of these explosive offenses. Georgia’s defense has the capability of keeping any team to minimal points, and I think the TCU defense will come up with some big stops to keep their team in the game. I’ll also be betting the 1H under at 31.5. If I’m riding the full game under might as well ride the 1H under as well. I’m not a huge fan on betting both 1H and full game under(s) but we only have one game left. YOLO!
2. First Score FG +260 (1U) & First Turnover Fumble +155 (1U)
Biggest game of the year and you think I would forget my favorite bets? Now look, I always love my bets. Why else would I risk my hard earned money on them? But these two bets you see above, this is a different type of love. I love them both so much I can’t even tell you which would I would lean towards. At +260 the first score FG is a no brainer bet. Yes this is college football, but it’s also the National Championship. You don’t get here without having yourself a reliable kicker. TCU will probably go for it on short 4th downs, but I don’t expect Georgia to. Points are hard to score in big games, take them when you can (mostly if it’s +260).
For the 2nd half of the bet we got the more reliable in CFB, first turnover fumble. I think both QB’s will be smart in their decision making early throwing the ball. In these big games it always seems like there is an early fumble that switches the momentum of the game. My senses are telling me that a TCU WR will drop a screen pass that results in a Georgia fumble recovery cashing this bet early in the first quarter. +155 has never looked so pretty.
3. Quentin Johnston U88.5 Receiving Yards -110 (1.5U) & Kenny McIntosh O60.5 Rushing Yards -110 (2U)
Quentin Johnston is a DOG. Against Michigan his stat line was 6 Receptions + 163 Yards + 1 TD. When he climbs into the top 10 of this year’s draft you will find out why. Unfortunately I think Georgia will game plan for him, just like how teams are planning for Justin Jefferson. Georgia is going to try to eliminate TCU’s big play ability which is exactly where Johnston thrives. I think he will get held under 60 yards, as TCU will look for there production elsewhere.
If you’re familiar with Georgia you know the name, Kenny McIntosh. After watching the National Championship game this Monday, everyone will know his name. TCU’s rush defense SUCKS. McIntosh only ran the ball 5 times in the semi finals but still was able to eclipse this number. Look for Georgia to run the ball heavy in this game with McIntosh easily passing 60.5 yards (maybe even by early 2nd Quarter). All he needs is one hole and it’s game over for the defense. Will also be sprinkling him at +810 to eclipse 124 rushing yards BOL.
4. Georgia -12, -110 (1.5U)
Really think I would bet the national championship without picking a side? My “three” best bets just found itself an extra bet in honor of the national championship. I hate Georgia. They are starting to remind me of Alabama and even though it’s only been a couple years of this dominance, I’m sick of it. But let me give you a couple reasons why to take them instead of TCU.
- Mattress Mack Bet on Them
- Georgia Won’t Make 100 Mistakes Like Michigan
- Public Loves TCU
- MATTRESS MACK BET THEM
4 reasons all which don’t need much explaining.
- 1. Mattress Mack finally got his biggest payout in betting history when the Astros won the series this past season. Time for the books to get their money back from him!
- 2. Goal line stuffed/fumble + 2 Pick 6’s. Michigan made 100 mistakes and still only lost by 6. Georgia will not make those same mistakes!
- 3. The spread opened at +13.5 TCU and has dropped to +12 TCU. The public loves TCU, if you’re on Georgia you might be best waiting till game time for best #.
- 4. FADE MATTRESS MACK AT ALL COSTS
Can we end our CFB season on a high note? My best bets and my dignity sure hope so because I already have way too many units out.
If we find ourselves on the same side of the bet slip I wish you all the luck.
If you are fading me/ on the opposite side, it just wasn’t meant to be your day!
Some people call me MarTy and some people call me Ryan. Wildcard when it comes to my writing. #FadeMe if I ever tweet out “locks”.