Welcome back to yet another TNF gambling blog. From the gambling perspective, we are on a uptrend ever since I went to to the crystal ball lady. From a football fans perspective, What the
FUCK have we watched the last two weeks. 40 points combined the last two weeks. And only 2 TD’S over the last 128 minutes of TNF action. Can it get any worse?
Before I give my winners for the week, here’s a quick look at how my bets did last week.
1. Commanders ML (1U)It might of been painful but this was a winner. We had to suffer through three quarters of boring football before we got to the only entertaining part of the game. To start the 4th, the Commanders converted a short FG to make the score 7-6. I’m not sure if the Commanders ever would’ve scored a TD until this idiot on the Bears did this.
The Commanders only needed two plays to convert a TD, making it 12-7 after a failed 2PT conversion.The Bears drove down the field on their last drive and had 4 chances to score from Washingtons 5 yard line. On 4th & Goal, the Bears came inches away from ripping our Commanders ML ticket in half.
2. First Score FG +120 (2 Units) & First Turnover Fumble +155 (2.5 Units)
1/2 isn’t bad, but I just want one week where these can go 2/2. Do teams just not fumble on Thursdays first anymore? Unfortunately I threw more on the fumble prop which lost due to a BIG MAN INT.
3. Brian Robinson O48.5 Rushing Yards (1.5 Units) + Curtis Samuel U4.5 Receptions (1U)
Double Bang. First, I’ll start with the less sweaty of the two. Curtis Samuel’s bet never had a chance to even lose. He finished the game with only two receptions, on 5 targets. Before the game started U4.5 was as high as +140 so hopefully some people cashed in on better odds then what I got. (+110)Brian Robinson on the other hand made us sweat till the very end. Going into the Commanders last drive Robinson was sitting at 41 rushing yards. On the first play Robinson broke out for a 16 yard rush getting him to 57 yards, cashing our 1.5 unit bet.
Hopefully you guys also took my advice by betting his TD prop at +220. Unlike my Curtis Samuel bet this benefited me by placing my bets earlier. At game time I saw the odds set at +160. Robinson was able to capitalize off the muffed punt that set them up within the 5, powering in for his first NFL TD. What a moment after being shot multiple times late this summer.
Week 6 Results: +3.4U
This week we have two teams who desperately need wins to keep themselves in the hunt for there division. Although the Cardinals and the Saints both find themselves sitting at 2-4, a win this week would go along way. The Cards find themselves in last place in there division with each of the three teams above them holding a 3-3 record. The Saints on the other hand find themselves 3rd in the division, behind both the Bucs and Falcons who are also sitting with a 3-3 record.
Going into last week, we were down 4.5 Units throughout our first 5 TNF blogs. Going into this week we are only down 1.1 units, which feels like a win after being down over 6 units at one point.
1. Over 44 (1 Unit)
Primetime unders are hot, and I’m sure the % is even better on TNF primetime games.. But after the last two weeks I refuse to bet the under. Jeff Bezos decides to buy TNF only on Amazon and he’s rewarded with the lowest scoring games. He’s too rich and powerful to keep this happening, which is why this is the week all the points start coming in. My confidence isn’t the highest but how could it be? The last two TNF games combined wouldn’t of even hit this over. Do your thing Jeff Bezos and make this game high scoring someway, somehow. The only thing I keep telling myself is it can’t get any worse.
2. First Score FG +135 (1.5U) & First Turnover Fumble +155 (1.5U)
Surprise! Just like everyone else’s nicotine addiction, this is mine. At least I warned you last week, the week before, and even the week before that about this addiction. Positive is we haven’t had a 0/2 week in awhile. Negative is we haven’t had a 2/2 all year. Finding the green is the most important, but for once can we just have a 2-0 week?
This is a big promise from me, but if these bets go 0/2 I promise to suspend them for the next three weeks.
3. Juwan Johnson O25.5 Yards (1.5 Units) & Marquez Callaway O29.5 Yards (1 Unit)
My player prop bets are hot, so I had to roll with another two this week. Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry are both ruled out for the Saints. With those receivers being out others will have to step up. Chris Olave is returning from a concussion and should be generating the most attention. Juwan Johnson has stepped up when other key targets are out and this week should be no different against a team who struggles against tight ends. He’s topped this number in 4/6 games this season and he will achieve that again this Thursday.
Marquez Callaway is another receiver who benefits with the missing Saints receivers. Last week he was able to generate 7 targets, only hauling in three catches for 36 yards. All it takes is one catch for receiver like Callaway to cash this yards total. I’ll also be sprinkling each of there TD props at +400 and +310 (Callaway).
We have fought and scraped to get back within a unit of even. Can this be the week we get back to the positive mark after being down over 6 units a couple weeks ago?
The crystal ball lady might of saved my season. Before I visited her I was down 6 units and had no confidence for future weeks. Two weeks later, I’m full of confidence and only down 1 unit.
If you’re riding my picks, good luck as always. If you’ve been fading my picks, there’s still time to jump back on the ship before we spring into the green.
Let’s all pray this Thursdays game is the opposite of the last two.
Some people call me MarTy and some people call me Ryan. Wildcard when it comes to my writing. #FadeMe if I ever tweet out “locks”.