Another week, another TNF blog. These are becoming more of a competition with how good I can do betting over anything else. I mean why else would I be writing a blog about the Redskins, Commanders and the Bears. Last week the Broncos and Colts delivered with an overtime game. The only problem is neither team was able to score a TD.
1. Broncos 1H -2.5 (1U)
When the crystal ball lady tells you to bet something you bet it. I’m glad I placed my bet when I was typing my article because by the next day it was -3 which would have resulted in a push. Brandon McManus was able to nail both his 1H FGs putting the Broncos up by 6. Right before half, the Colts nailed a 52 yard FG, but we were still able to cash the 1H bet. No highlights to really show because the game was that boring.
2. First Score FG +120 (2.5U) & First Turnover Fumble +155 (2.5U)
I already mentioned there wasn’t a TD so guess what? CASH. Thankfully our nuke bets didn’t go to shit after having a disaster the week before. Giving up was never the answer. Nothing better then hitting that first FG prop and know your free rolling on the turnover prop. Unfortunately Matt Ryan threw an interception to make us go 1/2 on these but still for some decent profit.3. Alec Pierce O.34.5 (1 Unit) & Mo Allie Cox O18.5 Receiving (1Unit)
One of these hit with ease, while the other was non existent just like I was fearful of. Alec Pierce looks like he could be a future stud and has found himself working his way onto fantasy rosters. Pierce brought in 8/9 targets for 81 yards. Mo Allie Cox on the other hand was non existent reeling in his only target for 7 yards.
Not where I want to be but better than last week… baby steps.Week 5 Results: +1.5 Units
Betting Preview
In last week’s blog, I mentioned how yuck this game is, and I need to apologize. Nothing can beat how boring that FG fest was last week. Wentz and Fields will provide more entertainment then the game last week which is sad to say. The worst games on paper are sometimes the most fun to bet. Hopefully these two teams can win be at least 4.5 Units to get myself back to even on the year.
Here are my top bets for this weeks game.
1. Commanders ML (1U)
Vegas has this game as a pick-em, so flip a coin and you might pick the right team. Since I plan on watching this along with the Wild tomorrow I made sure to choose a bet that has a chance to be competitive the entire game. Betting on Carson Wentz is always scary, even his own head coach is afraid to play him.Imagine being Carson Wentz and hearing your coach say that. What makes it worse is when you realize he’s talking about Jalen Hurts (rightfully so), Daniel Jones and COOPER RUSH? No wonder Wentz has 0 confidence, his own coach doesn’t even believe in him.
Here’s How Both Of These Teams Lost Last Week..
First we got Carson Wentz doing normal Carson Wentz things.
I had the over thanks to the death wheel on our gambling show High Risk/High Reward, so I was heartbroken he didn’t convert for me… even though he almost did going the opposite way.
Next we have former Vikings receiver Ihmir Smith-Marsette… The announcer found a great time to sneak in that call before we stole his cookies. All he needed to do was run outta bounds and this could of been all avoided so he deserves it.
How many times will I say “why did Carson Wentz do that?!” this week? Probably 20. But I’d be stupid to bet on Fields… A bet on the Commanders instantly makes this game watchable.
2. First Score FG +120 (2 Units) & First Turnover Fumble +155 (2.5 Units)
At this point I know everyone expects these bets to make the cut. It’s an addiction that will not be broken and tomorrow will be no different. I’m ice cold on the first turnover fumble prop, quite frankly I don’t know if I’ll ever hit it again. If there was ever a good time to break the streak it would be in a Bears/Commanders game. Just like every week, all we need is 1/2 and we find the green. This is the week of the fumble I’ll speak it into existence…. by throwing an extra .5 Unit on it.
3. Brian Robinson O48.5 Rushing Yards (1.5 Units) + Curtis Samuel U4.5 Receptions (1U)
I’m taking a shot with this one (no pun intended), but this is a perfect time for Brian Robinson to get his feel good story out to the world. Primetime game, fresh off his NFL debut after making a quick return from being shot. Ron Rivera has been praising Robinson all week, which will lead to him giving Robinson the touches he needs to cash this bet. His anytime TD prop is sitting at +220 which I also think has great value. Brian Robinson was my comeback player of the year in my preseason awards article, and this is the perfect week for him to start building his case. Just for the record, I will be sprinkling his anytime TD prop, and also his 2 TD prop at +1200.
Every year throughout sports you hear about these feel good stories and tomorrow night Scott Van Pelt will be talking about Brian Robinson.
My other player prop bet for this week is Curtis Samuel U4.5 Receptions. To be honest, I’m only betting this because all of the money is going to the Over in Vegas right now. At the time of this writing, you can get U4.5 @ +110 or U5.5 @ -175. My plan is to wait till right before the game to try to snag the best number possible as I think waiting will benefit me from the under perspective. Whenever you see a prop that everyone is picking the only logical thing is to fade it right? Carson Wentz is basically in control of all of these bets. Who knows what’s going to happen.
Each week, the amount of units has been increasing basically because I’m chasing to get my record back to even. 8 Units deployed on a Commanders @ Bears game… And that’s just the bets I placed before Game Day. I might live bet this up to 12 units, I’m unpredictable.
Big week betting wise, for a horrible game on paper.
As always, good luck if you ride my picks… and if you fade them, I hope you lose and step on a Lego.
Godspeed
Some people call me MarTy and some people call me Ryan. Wildcard when it comes to my writing. #FadeMe if I ever tweet out “locks”.