This week on Thursday Night Football we have a highly anticipated matchup between the high flying Dolphins, and last years Super Bowl Losers, The Cincinnati Bengals.Last week the Dolphins remained undefeated in a AFC East showdown against the Bills. The Dolphins were able to hold Bills out of the end zone the entire second half. Including this last drive where Josh Allen couldn’t find those last few yards.
Meanwhile the Bengals got off to a shocking 0-2, losing to teams with Mitch Trubisky and Cooper Rush under center. Fortunately for the Bengals they had a third tune up game facing the shitty Jets in New York. Thankfully Burrow was able to defeat Joe Flacco with a score of 27-12.Before we get into my best bets for this Week 4 matchup, lets take a look at how I did last Thursday in the Steelers @ Browns Game.
1. Steelers +5 (1 Unit)
Last week in my blog, my first bet I had was Steelers +5. Although the Steelers were covering for the first three quarters, I had 0% faith. When the 3rd ended the Browns found themselves in Steelers territory with all the momentum. Nick Chubb sent the blow to the house with 9:29 left in the 4th, and just like that Steelers +5 found itself being a loser.The Steelers offense has SUCKED all year. No faith was left to be had. Trubisky made it clear in the 2nd half he wasn’t finding the end zone. Tomlin said there wouldn’t be any changes at QB but if they lose against the Jets this week it better be Pickett time.
2. First Score FG +120 (1.5 Units) & First Turnover Fumble +150 (1.5 Units)
Boy oh boy, my two biggest bets of the game sure did not disappoint on the excitement level. Along with betting first score FG, I also decided to throw some on first score STEELERS FG @ (+400). My gut was telling me if the FG prop was to hit, it would be the Steelers nailing the FG. The only thing stopping both of these from hitting was the nasty Cleveland wind. (that I had no clue about when writing the article)
It looked so good until the wind sent my +120 and +400 bets straight out the window. The Browns instantly drove down and scored a TD kissing those bets good bye.
First Turnover FumbleEven with that bet being a tough loss we still had a chance to finish in the green. We would rather hit the first turnover anyways as it came in at good odds at +150. The only problem was neither team wanted to turn the ball over. In my lifetime I’ve probably bet first turnover 50 times? Somehow I never have had a game where the third option “No Turnover” hits. I was already adding up my losses when the Steelers got the ball back with 9 seconds left in the 4th. The Steelers only ran one play and this is what happened.
The best part is, I was set on my bets losing so I didn’t even realize I won this bet. It wasn’t until I logged into my account that I realized I had another good beat go my way. Nothing beats that feeling when your expecting to be down 5 Units but then log in and realize you are only down 1.5 Units.
Unfortunately with every good beat comes a bad beat… Last week that’s exactly what happened to Chase Claypool betters. Yuck
3. Boswell O5.5 Points (1 Unit)
When Boswell missed that opening kick in the first quarter I knew it was going to be the deciding factor. Boswell only was able to get one more FG attempt nailing it from 34 yards, also going 2/2 on XP’S. He finished with 5 points falling just short. The first FG he missed was the difference between a solid green night rather then a losing night.
Week Three Results- -1.5 Units
Onto this Thursday we have a fun betting matchup between two teams considered to be contenders.
Here are my three best bets.
Bengals 1H -3 (2 Units), Bengals -3.5 (1 Unit)
Tua is still questionable as I type this so the number could still move a little each way. The 3-0 Dolphins have had two strong wins over top AFC Contenders (Bills, Ravens). Miami still finds themselves as +3.5 underdogs against a Bengals team who couldn’t beat Cooper Rush Or Mitch Trubisky. Seems like a trap mostly because Tua wants to try to play.
The Bengals will dominate the first half so I will be taking -3 1H, along with the full game spread. Just remember Vegas is trying to make you bet Miami.. Take the free cash Miami is bringing to Cincinnati and take the Bengals with the points.
2. Result Of First Drive Dolphins = Punt -120 (1 Unit)
The title of my article is the Dolphins bring free cash to Cincy, and they are bringing it right away. If Tua doesn’t play I love this bet even more. Hopefully Miami receives the opening kickoff so they have the entire field to drive down. Expect the Bengals to come out with the momentum delivering a quick three and out. These quick bets hurt if they lose, but nothing beats that quick adrenaline rush it delivers.
3. First Score FG +145 (1.5 Units) & First Turnover Fumble +155 (1.5 Units)
Yes, I’m rolling it back for the second straight week.. If it’s not broke don’t fix it right? I’m more confident in the fumble as I think one of these two QB’s will get strip sacked before they throw a INT. If you bet one of these, you might as well bet both. All it takes is going 1/2 like last week and you find yourself in the green. Expect to see these bets every week until we find ourselves going 0/2.
If anyone is following these picks you would find yourself right about even through my first two weeks. I love this game this week and will have many units deployed.
Good Luck if you ride my picks, and hopefully you lose if you fade my picks.
Always Bet Responsibly
Some people call me MarTy and some people call me Ryan. Wildcard when it comes to my writing. #FadeMe if I ever tweet out “locks”.