Merry Christmas, ya filthy animals! We hope Santa brought you everything you wanted this year. However, Christmas isn’t over yet and we at 10,000 Takes are giving you Free Picks and advice on the Week 16 NFL slate. We are the Grinch and we are going to steal our Bookie’s Christmas. After a very vanilla 14-12-2 week last week, we are looking to have another winning week on our way to a very merry green Christmas.
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints (-7) O/U 52
We love football and we damn sure love football on Christmas. It’s a perfect way to get the family to stop asking you when you’re having kids or when you’re getting a significant other. This time slot is your sanctuary. I can’t imagine a better matchup for Christmas Day either. Vikes vs Saints. With the Vikings pretty much out of the playoff picture, they’ll look to spoil the Saint’s hopes of another NFC South title. The Saints’ top two WR’s are out of this game so they’ll look to rely on Alvin Kamara, who should have a monster game, and Latavius Murray (Revenge Game) against a pretty poor Vikes run D. On the other side, the Vikings have no shortage of weapons on offense so they’ll be able to score some points, but can they stop the Saints in the Superdome? Unlikely. Points will be put up and Drew Brees isn’t losing two in a row at home.My Picks: NO -7 / O52
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10) @ Detroit Lions O/U 54Are the Bucs even good? I’m seriously asking. I had to sweat out a fucking moneyline parlay last week with them, which was dead in the water until Brady went God-Mode. Different uniform, same result in completing the comeback against the Falcons. The Bucs are back in action on a “short week” without Ronald Jones II again. They should allow Brady to air it out 50+ times on their way to another win. The Lions have heart and I respect that. Matthew Stafford is a quarterback who I think is actually pretty damn good. It’s unfortunate that he’s suffered in Detroit throughout his career but maybe someone will make an offer next year. I want to take the Bucs here because they are going to win, but they just haven’t been good enough as of late to warrant a 10-pt spread on the road against a team with nothing to lose. Give me Stafford to cover with his ragtag junior varsity squad.
My Picks: DET +10 / O54
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) O/U 48.5
The second of three NFL Saturday games on the slate. This isn’t a true road game for the 49ers as they’ve set up shop in Arizona for the past few weeks since they are unable to play in San Fran. The 49ers ruined my week last week after they blew it to the shitty Dallas Cowboys. I had the 49ers as my “Free Money” pick so I apologize to all of you who put your faith in me, you could say that I fucked up. This week, the 49ers now have to face Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. They couldn’t stop Andy Dalton and Michael Gallup for Christ sake. As if things could possibly get any worse, CJ Beathard is also now starting at quarterback for the 49ers. In a must-win game for the Cardinals, I look for them to put up a lot of points and control the entire game. Get ready to have DeAndre Hopkins win your Fantasy Championship this week.My Picks: AZ -4.5 / O48.5
Miami Dolphins (-3) @ Las Vegas Raiders O/U 48
Two of the more surprising teams in the NFL this season face off in primetime on Saturday night. We are in for a fucking doozy. The Miami Dolphins are a whopping 11-3 Against the Spread this season and I’m not going away from the well. Both teams have their injury concerns but the way the Dolphins shit-stomped the Patriots last weekend really showed me something. This team isn’t the boring 6-to-8 win team they’ve been for the last decade. Tua Tagovailoa and that defense show up week in and week out. I was really hoping we’d get a Hawaiian-themed matchup with Tua vs. Mariota but it looks like Carr is healthy enough to play. The Raiders will rely on Josh Jacobs to get the ball moving and Darren Waller is always a stud, but the Dolphins defense will force a few turnovers, resulting to be the difference in this one. Also, Xavien Howard is still like +550 or even +600 for Defensive Player of the Year at some books. If you can get that, it’s worth the gamble.
My Picks: MIA -3 / U48
Atlanta Falcons @ Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) O/U 54
The Falcons couldn’t finish it off against Tom Brady last week in a damn-near identical game as we saw in the Super Bowl a few years ago. I don’t know how else to spell it, the Falcons are terrible. They need a new image. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones were the faces of this team for the last decade but they have fallen off the face of the earth. Switch to the other side, Patrick Mahomes has the league by the balls and he’s the face of the NFL. The Chiefs have only lost once this year and they’re in a prime position to capture the #1 overall seed in the AFC. They aren’t going to take this game lightly. I actually hope the Falcons take a lead, then we get to watch Mahomes make a comeback against that defense. What would the spread have to be for me to bet against Mahomes in this matchup? No bullshit, probably 21+ points. Seeing that the spread is half of that amount, sign me up for the Chiefs all day long.
My Picks: KC -10.5 / O54
Cleveland Browns (-9.5) @ New York Jets O47.5
Baker Mayfield has officially made the jump. Call it growing up, call it a great running game, call it great coaching, whatever you want to call it, Baker is dancing on graves. I can’t believe I am about to utter these words… but the Cleveland Browns are the biggest threat to the Chiefs in the AFC. Yes, they will win this game because they’re still in the hunt for the AFC North, but will they cover this spread? Let’s give a round of applause to the New York Jets! Closing on the moneyline at 10:1, they upset the Los Angeles Rams. They also lost out on their franchise quarterback in Trevor Lawrence and now have to settle for the next best in the draft. The Jets players want to win, management does not. Will that win propel them to a good enough performance to cover? Absolutely not. Baker is going to walk into Metlife Stadium in back-to-back weeks and not only beat the opponent, but he’s covering too.
My Picks: -9.5 / U47.5
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans (-7.5) O/U 46
Another HUGE moneyline upset from the Bengals when they upset the Steelers in prime time for all of the world to see. Now they are more than a touchdown underdog against the 4-win Texans? Give me all the Bengals stock. The Bengals are no easy out, regardless of which shitty backup quarterback is at the helm. The defense plays with swagger, as we all saw when homie was high-stepping out of bounds at the 50-yard line after intercepting Big Ben. For the Texans, I feel bad. They traded away all their valuable draft stock to the Dolphins. They have a great quarterback but he can only do so much. My guy, Watson, is throwing to Keke Coutee and Chad Hansen, cut him some slack. The Texans may very well win this one but by more than a touchdown? It ain’t happening.
My Picks: CIN +7.5 / U46
Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers O/U 44.5
I had to say an extra ‘Thank You’ to the Gambling Gods after hitting the Colts last week due to a goal-line fumble by the Texans, resulting in a Colts win and cover. This game is going to be so ugly. It is in Pittsburgh, in the cold, with two geezers at quarterback. This game may finish in 2 hours from all the running we will see. The Colts are far too good of a team defensively to allow Big Ben to beat them. I do feel like the Steelers are “due” for a win/cover but this one may be a bit too much for them to get back on track. No one is running the ball better than Jonathan Taylor right now and he’s going to go back to his old Wisconsin days in this cold weather. For fuck sake, Gio Bernard and Samaje Perine ran over the Steelers. Old Man Rivers won’t need to do much because the Colts rushing attack is about to have a field day.
My Picks: Colts -1.5 / U44.5
New York Giants @ Baltimore Ravens (-10) O/U 43.5
Lamar “Action” Jackson has been hotter than a crack pipe in Harlem these last few weeks. He’s got 7 touchdowns over the last two weeks and the Ravens have scored 40+ in each of those two games. How in the hell will the Giants be able to stop that? Easy answer… they won’t. Even with Daniel Jones potentially back in the lineup, this Ravens team is playing too tough right now. They’re certainly one of those teams that are getting hot at the right time. What’s crazy is that if the Ravens and Dolphins both win their next two games, the Ravens will MISS the playoffs at 11-5, the first time that has happened since 2008. JK Dobbins is finding his groove in the run game and both Hollywood Brown and Mark Andrews are playing out of their minds. I really want to take the Giants here because I’m now on THREE 9.5+ pt favorites this week, which is not a good recipe for success but oh well, fire up the Ravens! If you’re hesitant about the Ravens, this is one of the easiest Overs of the week.
My Picks: BAL -10 / O43.5
Chicago Bears (-7.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars O/U 47
Well, I’ll be damned. The Bears actually played a great game and beat the Vikings. Trubisky didn’t look half bad and David Montgomery is running like a damn racehorse at the Derby. The Bears D is susceptible, though. The best part of gambling is looking at both of these teams and seeing their records (7-7 vs. 1-13) yet, both of these teams are eerily similar Against the Spread (7-7 vs 6-8) so am I really supposed to give more than a touchdown and bet Da Bears?! Not this week! The Jaguars are so bad and they are just coming off their high of backdooring their way to the #1 pick in the NFL Draft and essentially locking up Trevor Lawrence. They aren’t going to win this game because I think the Bears’ offense is clicking right now, but I think the Jaguars will find a way to backdoor this game and lose by 6. Gardner Minshew is a man with nothing to lose and there is nothing scarier than that. He’s going to put up some scrappy points this week and the Jags lose but cover at home.
My Picks: JAX +7.5 / O47
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers (-3) O/U 49
One of my favorite movies of all time is Rounders. There is a famous quote in that movie that goes like this “Listen, here’s the thing. If you can’t spot the sucker in your first half-hour at the table, then you are the sucker.” The reason I bring up this quote is that if you can’t see that this is a sucker bet, then you are the sucker. The Chargers might be one of the most overrated teams I’ve ever seen. People love Justin Herbert, as they should to some extent, but people are falling TOO in love with him and love is blind. The Broncos are going to win this game. This is the type of game that Drew Lock could strive in. I expect a lot of points in this one but I also love the Melvin Gordon Revenge Game factor. Both teams are out of the playoff race so all we can root for as fans is just a good ole fashioned barn-burner.
My Picks: DEN +3 & Moneyline / O49
Carolina Panthers @ Washington Football Team (-1) O/U 42
We talk about Revenge Games a lot, mainly for two reasons. One, because they’re real. Two, because they cash. Not many things are better than a coaching Revenge Game. We saw it last week with the Dolphins’ Brian Flores vs. the Patriots. We now get one this week in Ron Rivera against the Panthers. Despite Alex Smith being out last week, the WFT found a way to cover against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. The Panthers are a tough out, but they’re still down their top playmaker in Christian McCaffrey and it’s already a tough task trying to score against this defense. I don’t care much for Dwayne Haskins at all but with Antonio Gibson looking to get back into the starting lineup, they can rely on the run game to edge this one out and keep their lead atop the NFC East intact. I love this one.
My Picks: WFT -1 / U42
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (PK) O/U 47.5
Game of the week. The Rams against the Seahawks. If you aren’t drunk off booze and football at this point, you better buckle up because this one is going to be good. I could care less that the Rams just lost to the Jets. They lost because they were looking ahead to this matchup. Shockingly, the Rams have won 5 out of the last 6 matchups between these two teams and the only game the Seahawks won was by 1 point in a 30-29 win last season. In short, Sean McVay has the Seahawks number and his main priority every year is to win this matchup. Jared Goff may be up and down, but he plays well when he goes toe-to-toe with Russ. Jalen Ramsey shadowing DK Metcalf is also worth the price of admission. I almost don’t want to make a pick in this one because it is going to be so back and forth. But, since we are going for a green Christmas, we are taking the Rams. Trust McVay to get his team ready and not have back-to-back stinkers. It’s also a beautiful day in Seattle this Sunday so go ahead and hit that Over ticket.
My Picks: LAR moneyline / O47.5
Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) @ Dallas Cowboys O/U 49.5
The Eagles covered for me last week against the Cardinals but it was all negated by the Cowboys making a cuckold out of me when they beat the 49ers. I’m not sure what it is, but Jalen Hurts has taken this team over. They look exponentially better than they did all season with Carson Wentz. Can he get another win under his belt in a division rivalry game? Yes, and he will. The Cowboys played well last week. Hats off to them. Andy Dalton diced up a decent 49ers defense and they finished off the game in style with a long TD run and an onside kick return for a TD. I expect this game to be pretty entertaining but the difference will be the defense. The Eagles have enough of a defense to hold off the Cowboys and force a few turnovers. It won’t be pretty, but the Eagles sneak this one out and crush the Cowboys’ playoff hopes on a late field goal and game-winning drive by Hurts.
My Picks: PHI -3 / O49.5
Tennessee Titans @ Green Bay Packers (-3) O55.5
Holy shit, what an awesome Sunday Night Football game. There is an outside chance that this is our Super Bowl Preview. The line for this one actually was -3.5, in which, I would have hammered the Titans, but with money coming in on them, it dropped to -3. I still would probably take the Titans but it is by far my least confident of all the picks this week. Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry are such an awesome duo and if the Packers can show they can stop them this weekend, I think that gives them a lot of confidence going into the NFL Playoffs likely as the #1 seed in the NFC. On the other side, you have my vote at MVP, Aaron Rodgers. The trio of Rodgers, Jones, and Adams might be tops in the NFL and at home in the frozen tundra, they won’t be an easy out. I like there to be some points scored in this one but the Titans will try to keep the ball away from #12. No better guy to do that than Derrick Henry. I do think the Packers will probably win but I would personally take the Titans +3 in the chance that they’re able to keep the ball away from Rodgers late in the game. There will be points but 55.5 is way too damn much.
My Picks: TEN +3 / U55.5
That does it for our Christmas week NFL Picks. Consider this my Christmas present to all of you. We hope we can keep up the winning ways and build off of last week’s winning week. Remember, green is green. A win is a win. Everyone enjoy the time off of work, by the TV and cranking up NFL Redzone. We are all dreaming of a GREEN Christmas.