Tis’ the season, my fellow sports gambler degenerates. What started as an incredible weekend of betting in the NFL Week 14 slate, it all came crashing down off of one of the worst single-game beats of my Sports Betting career from the Cleveland Browns safety debacle… But Momma didn’t raise no bitch, so we are back in the saddle and ready to win back our money before the Holidays. Consider this blog my Christmas present to you to help you win some cash.
It’s late in the NFL season and this is where teams begin to show their true colors. Teams playing for playoff hopes vs. bottom-feeder teams trying to play spoiler, no one said this was going to be easy. This is it. Don’t get scared now.Buffalo Bills (-6) @ Denver Broncos – O/U 49.5
Is there anything better than getting NFL football on a Saturday late in the season? The short and only answer is NO. If you have been betting on both of these teams all season, you’re probably doing pretty well seeing that both squads are 8-5 Against The Spread. It’ll be a beautiful 50 degrees and sunny in the forecast for Denver this Saturday, so weather shouldn’t play a factor. Everyone is talking about Josh Allen and how he’s evolved into a great QB, deservedly so, but he’s facing the 2nd best pass defense in the NFL in passing TD’s allowed. But how will the Broncos stop Stefon Diggs?! That is a good fucking question that I nor any NFL defense knows the answer to. It won’t be easy, but I think Drew Lock continues to hold the hot hand. The Bills will win the game knowing they have an outside shot at the #1 seed in the AFC but this line is far too big to give a Broncos team who has played well as of late.
My Picks: DEN +6 / U49.5Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers (-8) – O/U 51.5
After the Panthers got turned into fried chicken last week by Drew Lock, they now have to travel to the frozen tundra of Green Bay and face Aaron Rodgers. Not just any Aaron Rodgers, but an Aaron Rodgers that is playing for the #1 seed in the NFC and the NFL MVP award. The Panthers have allowed 6 passing TD’s over the last TWO games and now they have to defend Davante Adams? Instead of the Panthers team hashtag of #KeepPounding, we will change it to #KeepPraying for this week because they’ll need it to keep up with the Packers this weekend. You have to give the Panthers credit though, they have had their injuries but have remained competitive but without their stud RB, Christian McCaffrey, they aren’t going to be competing in this one.
My Picks: GB -8 / U51.5Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) – O/U 51
Potential playoff team vs. a team playing spoiler against their division rival. This game was wildly entertaining two weeks ago when the Texans blew the game on a last-minute fumble in the red zone. The Texans are a shell of what they were even two weeks ago and the only bright spot right now is Deshaun Watson. Unfortunately, Watson is going to be shit out of luck this week against one of the NFL’s best defenses. The Colts are rolling, winning 4 of their last 5 games and they finally started giving the fucking ball to Jonathan Taylor. The Colts recipe for winning isn’t going to be letting Old Man Rivers air it out. They need to rely on their run game, especially against the horrendous 31st ranked rush defense of the Texans. Watson is too good of a quarterback to keep down for long but this matchup might just be a bit too much to handle. The Colts covered the first matchup between these teams and I like them to make it 2 for 2.
My Picks: IND -7.5 / O51
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6) @ Atlanta Falcons – O/U49.5
You may be thinking to yourself, “There is no way the Bucs don’t win by at least a touchdown!” and while I usually give home touchdown-underdogs the benefit of the doubt, this game is going to be a curb-stomping outcome. Julio Jones just got ruled out for the Falcons and they hardly use Todd Gurley anymore. This could also be Matt Ryan’s last home game as the Atlanta Falcons starting QB. End of an era. Starting running back, Ronald Jones II, and starting left tackle, Donovan Smith has both been ruled out. Do I care about that? Hell no. The Bucs are better off when they allow Tom Brady to air it out to his stud wideouts and with the Falcons being in the bottom 10 in pass yards allowed and pass TD’s allowed, you can expect the Bucs to pass on the Falcons’ secondary all day long. I respect Matt Ryan and what he has done in his career but without Julio Jones and the lack of touches for Todd Gurley, I don’t see any way they’ll be able to keep up.
My Picks: TB -6 / O49.5Seattle Seahawks (-6) @ Washington Football Team – O/U 44.5
UPSET ALERT!? Remember when I just said I tend to give the benefit of the doubt to home touchdown-underdogs? Well, this is what I mean. There is no defensive line playing better football than that of the Washington Football Team. This defense is top 10 in pass yards/TD’s allowed and also top 10 in rush yards/TD’s allowed. Not to mention, Russell Wilson playing the early slate in the Eastern Time Zone has not fared well for Seahawks bettors. Yes, I know the public loves Russell Wilson and I know DK Metcalf is a fucking alien, but so is Chase Young and he is going to hunt Russ all game long. Sadly, Alex Smith will not be playing. Who doesn’t love a great comeback story? I’m not talking about Alex Smith right now though. I’m talking about Dwayne Haskins. Haskins can go from a 1st-round bust to helping his team win the NFC East. If Alex Smith was playing, I would’ve said hit the +215 Moneyline number, but since he isn’t, stay away… stay far far away.
My Picks: WFT +7 / U44.5
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (-1.5) – O/U 41.5
Listen up, Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski aren’t walking through that door. I never thought I’d be able to utter these words but the Patriots have one of the worst offenses in the NFL in regards to pure skill and talent. Cam Newton is washed up. The vaunted Pats defense of last year is beating up and broken. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are the best team in the NFL Against The Spread at 10-3. The Dolphins defense is making a mockery of teams. They lead the NFL in turnovers forced and are #2 in the NFL in scoring defense. If you expect me to pick Cam Newton on the road in basically a “pick’em” game, you’re out of your mind. “But the line is sketchy!” The reason the line is so small is that Bill Belichick has won his last 11 games against 1st-round rookie QB’s. If Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins can pull off the win, it’ll be the first time a 1st-round rookie QB has beaten the Patriots since Mark Sanchez in 2009. With Brian Flores coaching against the team that raised him, it may be time for the Patriots to pass the torch, starting this Sunday in Miami.
My Picks: MIA -1.5 / U41.5
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens (-13) – O/U 48
Unfortunately, I don’t really want to even speak of the Baltimore Ravens after they handed me my most painful loss in my gambling career. Not only did Lamar Jackson go from taking a shit and missing multiple series to coming in Jordan-Flu Game style to throw a TD pass to Hollywood Brown on 4th down, but the guy drove down the field with under a minute left to give Tucker the chance at the game-winning field goal, ultimately leading to the Browns safety debacle. You can say that Lamar Jackson is on the naughty list, otherwise known as my “You’re dead to me” list. Enough about Lamar. The Jags have Minshew Mania back and he’s playing for his career in this game. He will have the majority of his weapons healthy and although the Ravens will win the game, I like the Jaguars to backdoor cover the Ravens and give them a little taste of their own medicine. The point total is a bit high with all the running I expect the Ravens to do, so also do yourself a favor and take a long look at the under as well.
My Picks: JAX +13 / U48
San Francisco 49ers (-3) @ Dallas Cowboys – O/U 45
Ho, Ho, Ho, both of these teams fucking blow. I would rather stand outside in the cold by myself this Christmas than watch this game. But remember, you’re never too good to gamble on a particular game. Every game is a chance to win some money and I don’t ever use the word “LOCK” in gambling (jinxing yourself, obviously) but this game may be as close to “free money” as you’ll ever find. Kyle Shanahan couldn’t be more ready to put a bow on this year and move into the offseason, but he damn sure won’t go down without out-coaching Mike McCarthy first. Yes, the 49ers are bad. They’ve been decimated with injuries and it’s been a wildly disappointing year following up a Super Bowl performance. But the Cowboys? They aren’t just bad. The Cowboys are among the scum of the NFL. Andy Dalton is not going to look across the field and take down a Kyle Shanahan and Robert Saleh coached team. Book this one and write it in permanent marker. The 49ers are going to mop the Dallas Cowboys in Jerry’s House.
My Picks: SF -3 / O45
Detroit Lions @ Tennessee Titans (-10.5) – O/U 51.5
If I am the Lions, I probably just call the Titans and forfeit. When you’re allowing over 130 rush yards per game, the absolute last person you want to see on the other side of the field is Derrick Henry. Henry has ran for 100+ in 8 of their 13 games this year and as we saw last season, he gets better as the year goes on. He’s 468 yards shy of 2,000 rush yards for the season and I can assure you he will make a dent in that remaining balance this Sunday. The Titans currently sit atop the AFC South but only by a hair. The Tits have a tough game ahead next week when they travel to play the Packers, but if they can keep focused, they should have no problem dancing on the grave of the Detroit Lions. If Matthew Stafford doesn’t play, this game could get extremely out of hand… like 42-10 out of hand. If Stafford plays, I could see the backdoor potential. With what I know now, I am taking the home favorite and I like Tannehill and Henry to put up video game numbers against a putrid Lions team that has all but given up on the season.
My Picks: TEN -10.5 / O51.5
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings (-3) – O/U 46
I had to double-take when I researched this but believe it or not, Mitchell Trubisky is a 4-2 lifetime against the Minnesota Vikings. He also has a career 12-10 record on the road and is 9-6 in December games as a starting quarterback. David Montgomery has been moonwalking over opposing defenses and Allen Robinson is one of the more talented receivers in the league. However, the Vikings are the better team in this matchup, in my opinion. Kirk is playing at a high level. Dalvin Cook is one of the league’s best RB’s. The Vikings have the best receiving duo in the NFL. So who am I taking Against The Spread? Very hesitantly, the Vikings. This game will be high scoring and it will be ugly as sin. Trubisky can turn around and let David Montgomery run wild on a team missing a lot of talent on their defense. Dalvin Cook can run hard and set up nice play-action passes for Kirk and his weapons. I have no clue who is going to come out on top in this game but I can assure you that there will be more than 46 points scored in this one.
My Picks: MIN -3 / O46
New York Jets @ Los Angeles Rams (-17) – O/U 43.5
Look, the Jets are bad, that comes as no surprise. They’re going to go 0-16, which also may come as no surprise to some. I know what the numbers say. #1 ranked NFL Defense vs. the #32 ranked NFL Offense. It looks bad on paper but boys and girls, the Jets are going to cover this spread. Why? They will be looking ahead to next week’s matchup with the Seattle Seahawks to essentially decide the NFC West Champion. Trust me, you won’t find a bigger Sean McVay fan than me and I actually like Jared Goff more than the average fan, but the Los Angeles Rams shouldn’t be favored by 17 points against anyone. The Jets players are fighting for their livelihood. They are fighting to keep their jobs or at least to show other teams that they can play in a setting not run by the clown show that Adam Gase is running. No one is expecting this to be a sexy game. The Rams will win and remain atop the NFC West for now but I’ll be damned if these Jets players aren’t fighting to stay out of the wrong side of the history books.
My Picks: NYJ +17 / U43.5
Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) – O/U 49.5
The Eagles have finally moved on from Carson Wentz and found the spark they’ve been looking for in Jalen Hurts. Let’s be real, Jalen Hurts was born a winner out of the womb. In a matchup of two former Oklahoma Sooner QB’s, this may be one of the more exciting matchups of the week. Hurts looks to take the Eagles from the depths of hell and fight for a chance at the NFC East. Is Kyler Murray’s shoulder healthy? It sure as hell doesn’t look like it. Kingsbury has gotten out-coached as of late and I worry for Cardinals fans that they’re going to be on the outside looking in come Week 1 of the NFL Playoffs. In this matchup, you can expect some fireworks, but I like the Eagles to not only cover the 6.5 points but also take home the Moneyline at +215.
My Picks: PHI +6.5 & ML / O49.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) @ New Orleans Saints – O51.5
Drew Brees is back and he’s looking to knock off the Super Bowl champs in his own house this Sunday. Not quite sure why this game isn’t in Primetime on Sunday or Monday Night Football, but we will take it anyway. The Saints will be with Slant Boy, Michael Thomas but getting Drew Brees back is everything this team needs at this point in the season. Taysom Hill filled in and got a couple of wins but after losing to the Eagles last week, everyone knew this team wasn’t a true threat without #9 in the starting lineup. Kamara becomes more viable and he could have a great game. The Saints defense has been stout all season for the most part and they’ll have their hands full vs. Patrick Mahomes and his boys. But all of this means nothing because when you put Patrick Mahomes in a dome, he’s undefeated in his career. The Chiefs are a track team on turf and with no outdoor elements stopping them… good luck. After throwing 3 interceptions last weekend, Mahomes is going to walk into the House That Brees Built and rob the Saints blind. Mahomes and the boys are coming to fuck.
My Picks: KC -3 / U51.5
Cleveland Browns (-6.5) @ New York Giants – O44
Call me a Scrooge but damn this game is terrible for the Sunday Night Football game before Christmas. It all starts with the bane of my existence. The Cleveland Browns. Their stupid ass last-play shenanigans from last week cost me a huge winning week. This week they go on the road and play the Giants, who are riddled with injuries and COVID. Baker Mayfield has been damn good lately and there’s no better RB tandem in the NFL than Chubb and Hunt. This team is rolling and they look like the team no one wants to face down the stretch. I do feel like this is one of those games that could sneak up on the Browns, especially after such a gut-wrenching and emotional loss vs. their division rival last week. The Giants are a decent team and they seem to be well-coached but if Daniel Jones can’t play, I don’t expect them to be able to keep up with Cleveland on the offensive side. I respect what both of these teams have done this year, but I am not looking forward to this game. Enjoy some beers with the family and relax before the holidays.
My Picks: CLE -6.5 / O44
That covers what I would recommend for Week 15 in the NFL and I would highly recommend throwing together a couple of 2 or 3 team teasers if your book allows that. My favorite teaser is a 6-point tease knocking the Colts to -1.5 and the Bucs to a pick’em. I am not huge Over/Under bettor but I wanted to share what I felt on both the spread and the total. Fade or play at your own risk and as always, don’t bet away your Christmas presents. Sports betting is a cold motherfucker sometimes and sometimes you have bad days. However, this week is ours. Let’s go ruin your bookie’s Christmas.