POINTS, we finally had a Thursday with Points. 66 points to be exact. Last week I asked the question “Can it get any worse?”, and the answer was crystal clear… no it can not.This week we have a matchup that everyone will agree is worth watching. Two former MVP’S face off when Lamar Jackson and the Ravens “fly” into Tampa to take on Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.
Just like every other week, let’s take a quick look at how my bets did last week.
1. Over 44 (1 Unit)Whenever you get 42 first-half points your going to feel pretty confident in the over hitting. Don’t thank me for giving out this free pick, thank Andy Dalton. The Cardinals had just scored to tie the game 14-14 when the Saints got the ball back with less than 2 minutes in the half. Andy Dalton would throw not one but TWO Pick 6’s to make the score 28-14 with still 47 seconds remaining in the HALF. Yes there were 66 points scored in total, but who knows how the rest of the game goes without those plays?
2. First Score FG +135 (1.5U) & First Turnover Fumble +155 (1.5U)Sadly these bets went 0-2, which means no betting it for three weeks. The Saints opened the game with a quick 4-play TD drive capped off by a 52-yard throw to Rashid Shaheed. On their next drive, they decided to lose both our bets after Andy Dalton threw his first interception of the night. Do teams ever fumble it anymore? I may go through withdrawals not having this in my article this week, but a promise is a promise.
3. Juwan Johnson O25.5 Yards (1.5 Units) & Marquez Callaway O29.5 Yards (1 Unit)
Good news? We cashed on the bigger bet of the two. Bad News? We went 1/2 and had many chances for Callaway to get the last 10 yards he needed. Juwan Johnson benefited greatly from the Saints playing catch up, doing all of his damage in the 2nd half. He finished with 33 yards, catching all 5 balls thrown his way. We also cashed his +400 anytime TD, for our second straight week of cashing an anytime TD scorer. Unfortunately, we didn’t bet on Johnson to score 2 TD which was around +3300 but we will take a +400 hit any day of the week.
Our addiction bets were the downfall of our week, finishing off down -1.5 Units. Juwan Johnson saved our night with his TD, pushing us into the green. Since it wasn’t an official bet for my article I’m not going to count it, but for the record we did finish in profit if you bet on that last week.
Week 7 Results: -1.5 Units
Betting PreviewTom Brady VS Lamar Jackson, finally a matchup worth watching.
Last week Buccaneers fans finally realized they might be in trouble after losing 21-3 against a depleted Panthers team. The Bucs came into the game as -14.5 point favorites, anyone win big betting on Carolina last week? Luckily for the Bucs they play in the easiest division, and still hold the division lead even with a record of 3-4.
The Ravens come off a huge division win over the Cleveland Browns. Through seven weeks they hold the division lead with a record of 4-3 but Baltimore is not satisfied with that record. All three of their losses should be wins, but just like the Vikings last year the Ravens keep finding ways to shoot themselves in the foot.
Through our first 6 TNF Blogs, we are down 2.6 Units. Can we rebound with a positive week, or will we find ourselves back in the hole we just dug ourselves out of? Here are my three best bets for this TNF showdown.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML: +105 (1U)
The Buccaneers have looked like shit all year, and Brady especially hasn’t looked like himself. They were completely embarrassed last week by a pathetic Panthers team, which is exactly why Tom Brady will win this game. How many times over the last 10 years have people said Brady was done? How many times has Brady ended up proving that a slow start is easy to overcome and that he’s still the GOAT? Yes I know the Ravens are the best 4-3 team out there, they easily could be 7-0 if they didn’t blow all three losses which they held a win percentage of at least 90% throughout the game. Tom Brady has another chance to shut all the haters up and prove even at 45 he still belongs in the league.
2. Ravens Longest FG -110 (1.5U)
Since I can’t bet first score FG, this will have to do. If Vegas is able to place trap bets on things as simple as this they deserve my money. Ryan Succop is 16/17 on FG attempts this year for the Bucs but has only attempted one FG over 50 yards which he nailed. Justin Tucker is 5/6 this year on 50-yard+ attempts, and we all know that he is as automatic as you can ask for no matter the range. I’m starting to fall in love with this bet the more I type about it. If your bookmaker offers this bet, hammer it.
3. Cade Otton O28.5 Yards (1.5U) & Mike Evans O68.5 Yards (1U)
Over my last two weeks I am 3/4 on my props given, also including back-to-back anytime TD scorers. They have inserted themselves into the three spot, just like Joe Mauer did for his entire 15-year career.
My first-player prop is Cade Otton O28.5 receiving yards. Otton is slowly developing the trust of Tom Brady and we all know how much he loves to use his Tight Ends. It took a Cameron Brate injury to unleash the rookies potential, and this week is another week for him to prove he belongs in the TE1 spot. Since the Brate injury, Otton has eclipsed this number in 3/4 games. This week will be no different, as he faces off against a Ravens team who has struggled to contain tight ends.
For my other prop, I’m going to take the bait and bet Evans O68.5 Yards. Mike Evans is battling an ankle injury but all things point to him playing even with the short week. The Raven’s secondary sucks, which means Tom Brady should be looking Evans way throughout the night. I was originally going to bet Rachaad White receiving prop (Over 12.5,+110), but ultimately settled on Evans prop because people at BETMGM are loving his under. S/O @Johnewing for providing great betting intel, no matter what sport you are looking for.
Is there any possible way I can hit three straight weeks? Two weeks ago we cashed Robinson +230, and last week we cashed Juwan Johnson +400. Who will I be sprinkling money on this week?
Cade Otton: Anytime TD Scorer: +370, First TD: +2100
Breshad Perriman: +500 (No reason why other than just have that gut feeling)
Another week, another TNF blog written.
Can this be the week we finally get out of the hole?
As always, good luck if you ride my picks! And hopefully, you lose if you fade my picks.
Some people call me MarTy and some people call me Ryan. Wildcard when it comes to my writing. #FadeMe if I ever tweet out “locks”.