What the fuck were the matchmakers + Dana White thinking when they made this card for UFC 289?
The Co-Main is the only fight that is holding this card somewhat together. It’s an absolute snooze fest that 100% will be the worst-bought PPV of the year.
The Good News
We can put our hard-earned money on the line, and hopefully watch people get knocked out. Before we get into my preview let’s review how I did last weekend. We placed 12.5 Units.. including our bet of the year.
Our Card From Last Week
- Phillipe Lins +125 (1U)
- Andrei Arlovski +102 (1.5U)
- Abubakar Nurmagomedov -115 (5U)
- Abubakar Nurmagomedov By Submission +1200 (.2U)
- Silva Vs Souza Under 2.5 Rounds -120 (1U)
- Victor Altamirano +152 (1U)
- Fight To Start Third Round In Caceres Vs Pineda -105 (1U)
- Kara-France Vs Albazi To Go Distance (+105) (1U)
- Albazi By Decision +440 (.3U)
- PARLAY: Nurmagomedov + Andrei Arlovski +280 (.5U)
- 12.5 Units
- 10 Bets
- Record: 5-5 (-3 Units)
Such a good night of betting… turned into dog shit because my bet of the year loses on a sorta controversial split decision. It’s remarkable I only lost what I did, the main event saved us where we benefited from another controversial split decision. This time in our favor.
UFC 289 Preview
Match 5: Marc-André Barriault (-156) VS Eryk Anders (+122)
Starting off the PPV card for UFC 289 is 15-5-1 Marc-André Barriault taking on 15-7 Eryk Anders. Both fighters have failed to string together consecutive wins over the past couple of years. On the flip side, they also haven’t lost consecutive fights, one of which will change this weekend.
Preview: Barriault has 10 wins via KO, and is coming off a KO win in his most recent fight. Anders has found success in learning from his losses and not allowing losing streaks to occur. Ultimately I think Barriault gets it done with a late first-round KO.
Best Bet: Barriault -156
Match 4: Dan Ige (-260) Vs Nate Landwehr (+196)
This fight makes the hair rise on my arms just a little bit. Dan Ige steps into the ring looking to build off his KO win earlier this year. Standing in front of him will be Nate Landwehr who finds himself on a three-fight win streak and a win away from possibly breaking into the rankings.
Preview: This fight seems to have 2 outcomes in my brain. Either Dan Ige delivers a KO, or he losses this fight (probably by decision). Landwehr is as tough as they come which will lead to him controlling and winning this fight via decision.
Best Bet: Nate Landwehr +196
Match 3: Mike Malott (-236) Vs Adam Fugitt (+180)
The 3/5 fights on this UFC 289 PPV card come between two “newer” UFC fighters. Mike Malott holds a record of 9-1-1 but is 2-0 in the UFC with two first-round finishes. He has proven he can get it done on the feet and on the ground which makes this fight the biggest one of his career.
His opponent is Adam Fugitt who also has fought twice in the UFC, but holds a 1-1 record, losing and winning by KO. Although he finds himself sitting at 1-1 in the UFC, Fugitt knows he needs to make a splash now before it’s too late.
Preview: Expect fireworks from the second this fight starts, as you have two hungry fighters looking to finish this fight as soon as possible. I think Mike Malott is just too skilled for Adam Fugitt but I think this fight will make it to the later part of the second round at least before Malott wins by submission.
Best Bet: Over 1.5 Rounds -110
Co-Main Event: #1 Charles Oliveira (+125) Vs #4 Beneil Dariush (-164)
Holy Shit what a fight. Let me start off by saying I’m in shock that Charles finds himself as the underdog. Yeah, he lost his last fight, but it was to Khamzat Chimaev? Before that, he was on a 12-fight win streak, with tons of big names included within that.
The other star of this UFC 289 co-main event is another longtime UFC fighter Beneil Dariush. Dariush finds himself on an 8-fight-win streak and has just one man standing between him before he earns his chance to fight for the belt. He will have to put together the best fight of his career to defeat the #1 contender.
Preview: Charles Oliveira being +125 is SUCH A TRAP LINE. I’m just sitting here trying not to bet it but don’t think I will be able to withhold the urge. For the record, I would rather have Beneil Dariush win but think Charles Oliveira will prove to everyone why he was just the champion.
Best Bet: Charles Oliveira +125 & Fight To Go Distance +210
Main Event: (C) Amanda Nunes (-350) Vs #4 Irene Aldana (+250)
Amanda Nunes regained her belt 6 months after losing it and now looks to defend the belt against #4 ranked contender Irene Aldana. Aldana relies on her striking as her main form of attack and has shown why as her last three wins have come via KO.
She will have to be more cautious as normal this weekend because standing across from her is one of the GOATS of the UFC… Amanda Nunes.
Nunes suffered this shocking loss to Pena at the end of 2021.
Last July she proved it was a fluke when she regained the belt in the rematch after a unanimous decision win. There’s not much left for Amanda Nunes to prove, which is causing speculation that retirement could happen sooner rather than later. None of that will be in play this weekend, when the only thing on her mind is to defend her belt as she’s did so many times.
Preview: -350 is actually relatively low for an Amanda Nunez fight. Irene Aldana has proved she’s nothing to take lightly, but I just don’t see her winning this fight. So I switch my focus to how will Amanda Nunez get this fight finished.
Our Options…
- KO: +170 (last KO Win 2019 Vs Holly Holm)
- By Decision: +290 (Last win by decision, 2022)
- Submission: +380 (Last win via submission 2021)
My gut instantly said this fight won’t last the entire 5 rounds and will be finished before the third. The submission has the best value, but something tells me Nunez will get Aldana on her back and will end up finishing her via TKO.
Best Bet: Amanda Nunez To Win VIA KO OR Submission (-130)
UFC 289 BET CARD:
- Nate Landwehr +196 (1U)
- Landwehr Win By Decision +460 (.25U)
- Ige and Landwehr To Go Distance +115 (1U)
- Malott Vs Fugitt OVER 1.5 Rounds -110 (1U)
- Charles Oliveira +125 (1U)
- Oliveira By Decision +600 (.2U)
- Oliveira & Dariush To Go Distance +210 (1U)
- Amanda Nunez To Win By KO OR Submission -130 (2U)
- Amanda Nunez To Win By KO +170 (.75U)
- PARLAY: Nunez By KO + Oliveira & Dariush To Go Distance +660 (.25U)
Total Risk: 8.5U
Some people call me MarTy and some people call me Ryan. Wildcard when it comes to my writing. #FadeMe if I ever tweet out “locks”.