This one hurts to even write about. The Lions & Packers? At least it will (hopefully) be better than the 49ers & Giants game last week. The two NFC North opponents will face off in Green Bay with a chance to take an early division lead 4 weeks into the year.
Anyhoo, here’s the normal recap of how we did last week.
1. Christian McCaffrey Under 78.5 Rushing Yards -110 (1U)
At least I stated last week I had no fricken idea what I was doing betting this. He ended up having 85 yards only, but it was one of those bets you just knew was a losing bet from the start.
2. First Score FG +140 (1.5U) & First Turnover Fumble +155 (1.5U)
Haha, these bets ARE ON FIRE to start the year. The 49ers pounded out their first drive with 15 plays, which ended up stalling due to their own 10-yard line. Jake Moody made a 28-yard yard FG to get us all we needed for a profitable night on this bet.
The thing that makes these bets so fun is you never know when they will hit or lose. The FG prop hit on the first possession, and the turnover ended up losing with 3:39 left in the 4th quarter from this INT.
1/2 is all we ask for on these bets so I’m happy with the results.
2B Bonus Bet: Giants First Score Method FG +105 (1.5U)
To be clear I said this was my favorite bet of the night, and we only had to wait one possession after cashing our first score FG to also cash this bet. We also cashed it exactly how we expected it to, The Giants’ drive down got stopped, 44-yard FG, cash.
3. Giants +10.5 -110 (1U)
This was a bet I hated so much after one-quarter of football. Why would someone ever put money on the Giants against the 49ers? Oh yeah that’s right I’m one of those idiots that did. I’m just happy the 49ers scored the TD to make it an 18-point game so I wasn’t kicking myself for not buying the half a point.
Week 3 Recap
2-3 on the week doesn’t sound profitable on paper until you realize the only two bets won were higher units + better odds.
Week 3 Record: 2-3 (-.5U)
Season Record: 8-9 (+2.5U)
Week 4 Preview
This week we have the 2-1 Lions heading into Lambeau Field to take on the Packers in an NFC North matchup. It sucks to even watch this mostly when you know the odds are high it’s one of these two teams that will ultimately win our division. The Lions team is feisty, aggressive, and all around solid. You have to be in order to beat the Chiefs as we all watched in week one. Meanwhile, the Packers have Jordan Love who is starting to scare me just a tad with his performance.
1. 1st Quarter Under 7.5 Points -110 (1U) & Result Of First Packers Drive = Punt -105 (1U)
The first quarter O/U is 7.5 while the 1H sits at 22.5. I should probably be safe and take the 1H bet but something is screaming 3-0 with a team about to score when the 1Q runs out. Go with your gut, right? Risky bet but I like it. Show them some NFC North defensive football.
The second part of my bet ties in with my 1Q under bet. The Lions win the toss so the Packers receive the opening kickoff, get two first downs, stall out & punt. Quick bets are make or break for the confidence level the rest of the night, and this bet will either hit or miss quickly.
2. First Score FG +145 (1.5U) & First Turnover Fumble +155 (1.5U)
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right? Every week you will see these bets in these slots. No reason to stop when they stay consistently hitting. Honestly, these bets have been my saving grace this season. This week screams a double dip, so naturally we should expect to get skunked.
2B Bonus: Team To Score Longest Field Goal: Packers -115 (1U)
More kicking props! The Lions don’t have a field goal over 40 yards this season, and a big factor is their willingness to go for it on 4th down. Dan Campbell is not going to back down against a division rival, on the national stage which means I expect fewer FG attempts. The Packers are a team that will take the points when they can get them, which results in more FGs.
The bonus bet worked last week, will it again this week?
3. Jordan Love Under 0.5 INT (1U)
Nothing scarier than betting an under on an INT prop. Every throw through the air seems like it will be the one that loses the bet, but none will be thrown by Mr. Love this weekend. The worst-case scenario would be an opening drive INT… Not only would we lose one bet, we would lose three. I expect him to take minimal risks, and look for GB to use their running game heavily.
Best Of Luck
This is a week I either win every single bet or lose every single bet. Will our NFC North rivals come through for our wallet? Fumbles & FG’s are all we need to be swimming in the money come next week.
Best of luck to all my riders out there. If you’re on the #FadeMe team I hope you lose all your bets. The best-case scenario is cheering for a tie in this Lions Packers matchup, right? …Right?
Also don’t forget about the best Minnesota Sports Weekend coming up!
Some people call me MarTy and some people call me Ryan. Wildcard when it comes to my writing. #FadeMe if I ever tweet out “locks”.