Minnesota High School Basketball State Preview: AAAA Tournament Predictions.

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The Minnesota State High School Basketball Tournament returns this week with 32 teams (8 in each class) fighting for 4 different class state championships.

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Minnesota State High School League Boys' Basketball Tournament | Target  Center

AAAA Tournament Predictions

I decided to just focus on the AAAA bracket because why would I want to talk about how Totino Grace is gonna three-peat just because they love to sandbag in the postseason? Can you imagine full-on recruiting people for high school basketball just to sit back and play competition way less when the postseason rolls around? Recruiting for MN High School Basketball already pisses me off enough. But playing the top teams for AAAA all year (and beating them) just to drop down and play where you know you can win? PUSSSSYYYYYYY SHITTTTTTTTT. God is looking down on your “catholic school”, shaking his head wondering what the fuck he created.

Sorry for getting sidetracked, back to the reason you are here. To predict some 4A High School Basketball.

First, let’s look at the teams competing this year (ranked by state seed)

  1. Wayzata
  2. Park Center
  3. Minnetonka
  4. Farmington
  5. Cretin-Derham Hall
  6. Coon Rapids (Random Draw)
  7. Eagan (Random Draw)
  8. Rogers (Random Draw)

My first thoughts? A mix of returning teams, also mixed in with teams returning for the first time in ages. Here are my predictions for the entire AAAA State High School Basketball Tournament.

Rules: Never bet all favorites.

Quarterfinals: All Games @ Target Center

(10 AM) Game 1: (1) Wayzata Vs (RD) Rogers

Starting off the state tournament, we have the defending champs taking on Rogers.

4-star Creighton Commit Jackson McAndrew leads the defending state champions into the Target Center coming off a career-high of 40 points in the section finals. If I had to describe him in one way, I would say an upgraded Frank Kaminsky. Not NBA Frank The Tank, I’m talking peak Wisco (gross) Frank. Overall, he led them to an astounding 27-1 record, setting them up perfectly to repeat as champions.

Standing across from them is the 20-10 Rogers Royals. I watched them earlier in the year and honestly, they are a damn good team. It sucks they are lined up against the juggernauts of Wayzata, but don’t be surprised if Rogers puts Wayzata on upset watch early on in this game.

Prediction: Wayzata will pull away thanks to a late first-half run. Probably the best random draw game….. well, on paper at least.

Advancing To Semi-Finals: Wayzata

(NOON) Game 2: (4) Farmington VS (5) CDH

There’s a chance this could be the only competitive quarterfinal matchup, and by chance, I mean a goddamn good chance.

Farmington (23-6) finds themselves back in the state tournament for the first time since 1937. Yes, you read that right, 1937. My grandparents were barely even alive then (also aren’t very alive now). It’s always great to see new teams show up, and this is a team none of us have seen in our lifetime. This is a team that everyone would love to cheer for but hate to play against.

During this past season, CDH held a solid record of 24-4. They started their year with a loss. Guess who they lost to: Farmington. They lost that game 74-65 and what better way to see how far you have progressed as a team than to play the same team you saw in our very first game? I expect this game to be physical and the lowest-scoring game of the day by far.

Prediction: Farmington will win this game. Something just tells me they are here to make a statement. They have the confidence knowing they beat them; they have the motivation from themselves and what I’m guessing will be their entire city. Watch out for the Farmington Tigers.

(2 PM) Game 3: (2) Park Center Vs (RD) Eagan

Goodnight Eagan. Thanks for coming out to play. Also, have fun when you’re getting tomahawk dunked on when our team is down 40 points in the second half. Park Center is one of the most fun teams I’ve ever watched. Electric, play hard, will not take the foot off the gas pedal. They had a record of 25-3 and are led by 4-star Mr. Basketball nominee Casmir Davis. They are a deep-stacked team which also includes Ari Gooch, AKA the most electric/fun player I saw this year.

On the other side of this beatdown is Eagan. Eagan had a record of 17-12 and well that’s all I’m saying about them because this is a 60+ blowout waiting to happen.

(4 PM) Game 4: (3) Minnetonka Vs (NR) Coon Rapids

Minnetonka wraps day 1 up when they face another team that is returning from an abnormally long break from advancing to the state tournament (1983).

Minnetonka has been dominant as usual this year. They held a record of 22-6 with 4 of their losses being to Edine/Wayzata. Will the rich boys show up ready to play the awaiting-flying Cardinals? Only time will tell.

How Tonka Got Here.
Coon Rapids coaches and fans after clinching the section title.

Sorry Minnetonka, but you are about to be a part of one of the biggest upsets in MN basketball history when the 16-13 Coon Rapids roll in on Thursday.

Yes, I know Coon Rapids may or may not be in the easiest 4A section by a wide wide gap, and yes, I know CR’s defense might suck… And YES, I know people might watch their coach on the sideline and wonder if he found himself in an 8-ball before the game the way he’s pacing, throwing his hands, jumping and scratching his head, and so on. But guess what? That’s not an 8-ball. That’s just passion and love for the game. Just look at the photo above.

This team is here for a reason. The reasons? They can shoot threes and have found success by relying on each other. I’ve watched all these teams play this year and that’s the one thing that sticks out to me that’s different about this team compared to the rest, no superstar player. Always someone else stepping up. Just 8-10 guys who bought into what their coach was saying and found their role.

(#10 is an absolute certified bucket though).

Like I said, don’t be shocked when CR pulls off a magical upset after finally returning to the MN High School Basketball Tournament. They were picked preseason to finish last in their section this year, and now look.

Prediction: Coon Rapids sneaks out a win for the big upset.

Advancing To Semi-Final: Coon Rapids

Semi-Finals: @ Williams Arena

Onto the semis of the Minnesota state basketball tournament. All 4 teams remaining will be sent to Williams Arena where they will be fighting for a chance to play for the state title. Who gets through to the championship?

(3/21, 6 PM) Game 5: (1) Wayzata Vs (4) Farmington

Prediction: Well fuck me this is hard to pick. My first instinct was Farmington just because I could see the storyline already. They can compete with anyone like I said, so DO NOT be surprised if something happens…. But I’m going with the powerhouse in Wayzata.. They have the experience and I think they get back to the big game.

Result: Wayzata advances to State Championship

(3/21, 8 PM) Game 6: (2) Park Center Vs (NR) Coon Rapids

Coon Rapids got their upset just to get followed up by a 60-point ass-kicking. Park Center is just that good and the styles of play are nothing alike. This one will be over within the first 5 minutes. Ultimately this sets up the state finals rematch from the past two winners.

Result: Park Center To State Championship

State Championship Game: 3/23, 8PM @ Williams Arena

Game 7: (1) Wayzata Vs (2) Park Center

If this holds, it would be the third year in a row they have found themselves against each other @ the State Basketball Tournament. Park Center won in 2022 followed up by Wayzata getting it back in 2023. This sort of feels like the battle that decides everything… And the team that will be a state champion is……. PARK CENTER! Park Center has multiple players who can score the ball which is a key for success in these high-pressure games. It should deliver and be an instant classic type of game.


Park Center ends Wayzata's repeat bid, wins first state title – Twin Cities

Check Out All The Star Players MN Has To Offer This Weekend

Tons of talent from MN you will be seeing in the Big 10 and across the country next year. Find all the schedules with the link below to see the best talent Minnesota has to offer.

Schedules & Information Here.


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