Thursday Night Football returns to Amazon Prime this week when the Patriots host the Bills.
Before we take a look at this AFC East matchup lets take a quick look at how my bets did two weeks ago in the Titans @ Packers game.1.First Score FG +125 (1.5U) / First Turnover Fumble +155 (1.5U)
Yes, I love these bets but it’s time to move on. We returned from a three week suspension and were instantly rewarded with an 0-2 week. I was confident, and said if they went 0-2 I was done for the year with them. I’m a man of my word which means you will no longer see these in the future weeks. It was a fun ride that never really took off but hey you learn from the past right?
2. 1H U20 -110 (1U)
Good News? We didn’t lose this bet. Bad News? We also didn’t win this bet. Things weren’t looking pretty after the first quarter when the score was 7-6. The second quarter went how we expected the entire half to go with the only TD coming with 32 seconds left in the half. Although that TD made our bet push, I was more then happy since a missed XP was the difference.3. Aaron Rodgers O2.5 Rushing Yards -110 (1.5U), Aaron Jones U57.5 -110 (1U),Derrick Henry O98.5 Rushing Yards -110 (1U)
Going into the half we were 0-2-1 with only are player props remaining. Aaron Rodgers never even attempted to run the ball which was the only was this bet couldn’t win. It always sucks to lose the player prop you throw the most on but could we win the other two?
(No we couldn’t)The trend continued for Aaron Jones, where he is unable to put together back to back strong weeks. Jones was limited to just 12 carries for 40 yards. Remember if he goes for over 100 yards one week always hammer the under for his rushing yards the next.
Our third player prop was King Henry O98.5 Rushing Yards. The Packers Rush Defense had been horrible all year and unfortunately they found a week to hold Henry under 100 yards. This one hurt more then the others because I was heavily debating between his rushing yards and his O11 Receiving Yards prop. He finished with 87 yards rushing but added 45 in the passing game. Big game for the King but couldn’t hit the bet we placed on him..
OUCH! Every time we sniff ourselves getting outta the hole, we instantly bury ourselves again. Please don’t call me Aldo Raine because I am in fact not the new Lieutenant in this bitch.
Down -4.5 Units last blog, putting our season record at -5.6 Units.Betting Preview
This Thursday the Bills head into Foxborough to take on the Patriots. Both teams played last Thursday on Thanksgiving but found themselves heading home with different results.
The Bills faced off against the Lions in what turned out to be a thriller of a game. Michael Badgley nailed a 51 yard’er with 23 seconds left to tie the game at 25’s. 23 seconds, 3 timeouts? WAYYY too much time for the Bills. On the first play Allen and Diggs connected on this pass, instantly setting themselves up for a FG opportunity.
They would run the ball a couple yards closer before Tyler Bass nailed a 45 yard’er sending them home with the win.
Thanksgiving Night concluded with the Patriots trying to takedown our Vikings. The Vikings made Mac Jones look like a young Tom Brady, allowing him to throw for 382 yards and 2 TD’s. The Patriots seemed to be riding all the momentum until Kene Nwangwu returned a kickoff to tie the game.
The Patriots would end up falling 33-26 sending there record to 6-5.
1. Bills 1H -3, -110 (1U)
Starting off we aren’t going to overthink it and will be riding with the Bills -3 1H. I think this first half could be low scoring with the Bills winning it 10-3. Josh Allen is going to come out firing in the 1H before probably blowing it in the 2nd half. Take the team whose been stuck in Detroit the last two weeks!
2. Mac Jones O9.5 Rushing Yards -110 (1.5U)
First time ever having only one player prop as an individual bet. This bet might be really stupid because the last three weeks he has 3 carries for -1 yards. He’s playing his teams big rival and a win could instantly regain the trust of the New England Faithful. Look for Mac to put on a rushing clinic, all it takes is one play action rollout run and we find ourselves cashing this bet.
3. Diggs O6.5 Receptions +110 (1.5U), Jonnu Smith O13.5 -110 (1.5U)
Riding with two more player props to hopefully dig ourselves outta this hole. I barely even thought about what to put in this slot, just went with the first two props that caught my eye.
Reasoning: Diggs will always get his targets and on primetime you know he wants to put on a show. I expect lots of quick screen and slant passes to get him going early which can result in this bet hitting in the first half.
Jonnu Smith: Almost picked him up last week in fantasy for a fill in TE, and would of resulted in 0 points. Tomorrow the Patriots are going to rely heavily on play actions which is exactly where Smith benefits. Look for him to slip behind the coverage and cash this bet with one reception. I can feel it in my bones.
Closing Statement
Took another beatdown two weeks ago, with the chance to finally head into the profit. Rumors are saying I’m not clutch, but how come every time I dig the hole I find my way almost back out.
The faders got some $$$ back, but after taking the thanksgiving week off, I’m back for blood.
To my riders, we hit another speed bump but this is a marathon not a sprint.
Godspeed.
Some people call me MarTy and some people call me Ryan. Wildcard when it comes to my writing. #FadeMe if I ever tweet out “locks”.