Playoffs?! Yes, Jim Mora… Playoffs… and Picks!
It’s 2021. That means whatever happened last year is old news. Your gambling record is 0-0 and you have a fresh slate. New year, new you. However, we are still in the midst of one crazy-ass NFL season. 17 weeks of the NFL have come and gone, and they all lead to this. The NFL Playoffs. Throw history out of the window, this season has been a wild one and you bet your ass we are going to go out with a bang. I hate to remind you of this, but we only have 4 weeks left of sports betting on the NFL. With that being said, buckle the fuck up because we are coming for blood in 2021. Let’s ride!
Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills -6.5 / OU 51This year is a bit different. With the playoff expansion, we get a triple-header of games on both Saturday and Sunday. I recommend waking up early, mix yourself a bloody mary, or maybe a screwdriver. Place your bets, make like a tree, and plant yourself. What a doozy in the first matchup. Not many teams are hotter than the Buffalo Bills. They also were tied for an NFL best 11-5 Against The Spread this year, so an extremely profitable squad. They host the Colts, who boast a HOF quarterback, a dangerous run game, and an elite defense. For the Bills, Allen to Diggs has been like clockwork and they’re 7-1 at home this season. On the other side, the Colts have lost some weird games on the road but still average 28ppg away from Indianapolis. Not many running backs have been better than Jonathan Taylor as of late and when he gets 20+ carries this season, they are 4-0. Ultimately, I think that the Bills win this game but I think the Colts keep it tight. Expect a shootout with both of these offenses playing lights out.
My Picks: IND +6.5 / O51
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks -3.5 / OU 42A series split on the season between these two teams. Russell Wilson hosts the Rams, who he has struggled against in his career. The Rams are one of three teams in the NFL that Wilson has a career losing record against. However, Wilson is 4-1 in wildcard round games. The guy is a winner. On the other side, an injured Jared Goff may look to rely on his badass defense to save him from another terrible performance. I have been a Goff supporter for years but after the performance, he put up against Seattle a couple of weeks ago, I can’t do it anymore. But even though Goff STINKS, the team around him is pretty damn good. Sean McVay should set things up for Goff to manage the game and do anything he can to not fuck up. For Wilson, his biggest weapon, DK Metcalf, will be damn-near invisible with Jalen Ramsey shadowing him. But remember what I said before? Russell Wilson is a winner. The Seahawks will somehow find a way to win this game, but I like the Rams to cover. They’re too good defensively to get blown out. Goff manages a good enough game to cover the 3 points.
My Picks: LAR +3.5 / U42
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8 @ Washington Football Team / OU 44.5Chase Young is one hell of a rookie defender, but calling out the GOAT? You come at the king, you best not miss. Tom Brady has owned Saturday games throughout his NFL career and he is coming into his game hotter than a spoon in a crackhouse. Want to know a fun stat? The Washington football team has allowed 20+ points in 9 games this season. They are 0-9 in those games. The Bucs have scored 20+ points in 14 out of 16 games this season. The Washington Football Team just won’t be able to keep up with Brady and the Bucs. The WFT also has allowed the 2nd most sacks in the NFL this season, not particularly great when facing a Bucs team that ranks 4th in the NFL in sacks on defense. On a positive note for the WFT, everyone loves Alex Smith. Might as well name the Comeback Player of the Year award after him. Ron Rivera, despite a losing record, won the division and overcame cancer this year. The WFT has been through some shit and they should be proud, but they’re about to get thrown overboard and left for dead when Brady gets through with them. This one won’t be close.
My Picks: TB -8 / U44.5
Baltimore Ravens -3 @ Tennessee Titans / O54.5
It’s now the Sunday slate. Hopefully, you mushroom stamped your bookie on the first 3 games. Now we get into the nitty-gritty. Talk about a “Prisoner of the Moment” line. The Ravens are rolling through opponents and Lamar looks like he’s back in MVP form. JK Dobbins is being used and he’s performing. Hollywood Brown looks like a star. Mark Andrews is a top 5 tight end. What isn’t there to love?! Well, the answer is simple. #22. The King. Derrick Henry. In Henry’s last two games against the Ravens (once last year and once this year), he had 195 yards rushing and 133 yards rushing. The Titans are 2-0 in those games. Now you expect me to believe that the Ravens should be favored AT Tennessee?! Mike Vrabel knows how to defend Lamar Jackson and now that Ryan Tannehill has had experience in these big playoff games, they become even more dangerous. Both teams love to run and running the ball means running the clock. 54 points is a bit too high for my liking. As for the spread… I don’t want the Titans +3. I want the whole damn thing. Moneyline. Let’s fucking go.
My Picks: TEN Moneyline / U54.5
Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints -10 / OU 47What a mess of a game. The little cubby Bears go into the house that Brees built to take on the Saints. Is this Drew Brees’ swan song? It could be. This team is playing for him and when you have playmakers like Alvin Kamara and Michael “Slant Boy” Thomas, they are going to be a tough out for anyone. The Saints have been putting the pedal to the medal as of late and pulling out a 12-4 record when Brees and Thomas missed a handful of games is extremely impressive. As for the cubby Bears, Mitchell Trubisky takes his 0-1 career playoff record into New Orleans to try and take down the giant. The Bears did take the Saints into overtime earlier this season and the Bears only lost 3 games all season by double digits, two of which were to Aaron Rodgers. So what am I getting at? With the emergence of David Montgomery and the way this defense has been playing this season, I think the Bears have a shot…. at the spread. Trubisky is very bad, but the guy has heart and when they’re down 14 late in the game, he’s going to come through and hit the backdoor. Saints win but 10 points are too much against a scrappy team like the Bears.
My Picks: CHI +10 / O47
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers -6 / OU 47.5
What a season for the Cleveland Browns. The future is bright with all of the young talents they have but unfortunately, Kevin Stefanski isn’t walking through that door. The Browns lost to the New York Jets without a couple of wide receivers. You expect me to believe they’re going to beat Big Ben in Pittsburgh without their head coach? GTFOH. The play-calling for the Browns won’t be the same and the creativity to beat this stout Steelers defense just won’t be there. Big Ben’s arm is a noodle at this point in his career but the guy still has a feel for the game that you can’t teach. I expect a lot of underneath passing and a lot of James Conner on the ground in this one. If the Steelers can get some momentum rolling and win this game against their division rival, that could propel them next week in a potential matchup vs the Buffalo Bills.
My Picks: PIT -6 / O47.5
Ladies and gentlemen, let the fun begin. Let’s beat the bookie and win back all that money that we may have lost during the regular season. Good luck everyone!