This Thursday King Henry looks to propel the Titians to victory when they face off against the Packers and the scumbag himself… Aaron Rodgers.
Just like every week lets first take a look back at how my bets did last week. No need to be short and sweet this week because, I’M BACKKKKKKKKKKKK.1. O48.5 Longest FG, -110 (2.5U)
Sometimes betting isn’t hard, you just have to be realistic with yourself and play the odds on how often something happens. This bet hadn’t missed three straight weeks once this year, and I found myself a loser of 4 straight FG bets. When two stars align you have to nuke it, which is exactly what I did. Thankfully for us Eddy Pineiro was able to hit the kick he couldn’t two weeks ago. Nailing a 49 yard’er in the 2nd cashing this bet by the tiniest of margins.
2. Panthers +3, -110 (1.5U)
Last week I said the downfall for the Falcons was going to start, which is exactly what happened. The Falcons have been frauds all year, and will continue to show us that through out the rest of the year. The Panthers took control of this game early and never lost it.. Two straight weeks the underdog was never losing throughout the game with the points. I must be dreaming right?3. D.J Moore O58.5 Yards, -105 (1.5U) & Terrance Marshall JR O35.5 Yards, -110 (1.5U) & Marcus Mariota O1.5 TD, +175 (1U)
2/3 on player props for +1.7 Units? I’ll take that every day of the week. D.J Moore was our one bet that failed to hit even though he had 29 yards by the early second quarter. Terrance Marshall did the complete opposite waiting until the middle of the 3rd quarter to announce his presence.
Our last bet we decided to throw in was Mariota O1.5 Passing TD’s at +175. I threw this bet in last minute and thought it had no chance to hit once halftime rolled around. Mariota was able to throw 2 second half TD’s including this one to KhaDarel Hodge to cash our + money bet.
Last Weeks Motivation
Remember last weeks motivation?
Vegas did have us in the first half I’m not gonna lie. Down nearly 7 Units, and my back against the wall. How do I respond to start the 2nd half? +5.5 Units. Yes you read that correctly, deployed 8 units returned with 13.5 units. Call me Aldo Raine because I’m the new Lieutenant in this bitch.
Season Record: -1.1UBetting Preview
Last week I preached positivity and look where it got me. I’m not saying I’m back, but I really think I’m back. Can we find the green for well the first time ever? Yes I will and it all starts with these three bets.
1. First Score FG +125 (1.5U) / First Turnover Fumble +155 (1.5U)
Suspension served and we are back firing instantly. Unless I missed something this bet has yet to go 2/2 this entire year on TNF. The fumble prop has only hit 2/10 weeks… 20% yikes. All of these things suggest it is’t a smart bet at all.. Until this week. Cold Weather, and two teams that love to run the football. If that doesn’t scream field goals & fumbles I’m not sure what does. I’m actually so confident in these bets this week that I will suspend myself the rest of the year if these bets go 0/2 this week. It’s like any tolerance break you take, when you come back they find a way to get you hooked again.
2. 1H U20 -110 (1U)
This was heavily debated but I think these defenses will hold these teams to FG in the first half. The Packers and Titans both will take there sweet time on offense to, with no problems using the running attack to tire out the defense. It’s either an easy win or the score is 14-7 after the first and we are completely dead. We have had some decently high scoring games these past Thursdays, time for a boring snooze fest before the big thanksgiving games.
3. Aaron Rodgers O2.5 Rushing Yards -110 (1.5U), Aaron Jones U57.5 -110 (1U),Derrick Henry O98.5 Rushing Yards -110 (1U)
Rodgers has gone three straight games over this small number, and this week should be no different. With the Packers desperate for wins, Rodgers will be looking for any chance to use his feet to gain the easy first down. The line will only be moving upwards so jump on this as quickly as you can!
For my second player prop I’ll be staying on the Packers side of the ball but taking the U57.5 on Aaron Jones rushing yards. Aaron Jones had a monster game last week, rushing for 138 yards on 24 attempts. It was his 4th game so far that he’s eclipsed the 100 yard mark. In the previous three the following week he has rushed for totals of 36, 63, and 25. He’s also battling a shin injury which could make the Packers be more conservative with him on a short week.
My third and last player prop is King Henry rushing for Over 98.5 yards. The Packers have been horrible against the run this year, allowing over 120 yards a game. Derrick Henry also is a monster and always finds a way to put on a show during primetime games. Will it be a 99 yard run or a huge stiff arm? We will wait to find out but look for Henry to bounce back from last weeks performance with a huge game.
Closing Statement
For the third time this year we have battled to get out of the hole. Only being down 1.1 Units is a blessing after being down 7 units multiple times this year. I’m like a groundhog on February 2nd, I can see the light.
Last week I talked about how my attitude would make Vegas my B*t*h, and look what happened, I struck back! Time to get on the boat and set sail into the profit land.
For all you faders, bet you weren’t expecting that to start your 2nd half of the year. Keep fading me I dare you.
To my ride or dies, grab your lifejacket, we are setting sail and not returning till after the season ends.
Godspeed
Some people call me MarTy and some people call me Ryan. Wildcard when it comes to my writing. #FadeMe if I ever tweet out “locks”.