7 months later the NFL is FINALLY returning with the Lions heading into KC to take on the Chiefs. Can the NFC North preseason favorites shut down the Super Bowl party in KC this week? Chiefs, Lions, Bets! Thursday needs to hurry up.
If you’re new to this, every Thursday I post a blog highlighting my best bets for the game. Fading is always an option (smart option), but this might be the year I don’t lose a bet. Here are my best bets for Week 1 of the NFL season.
Underdog Pick
New this year I will be giving my favorite Underdog FANTASY Play for Week 1. Unfamiliar with Underdog? It’s a Fantasy sports company that gives you the ability to choose higher or lower on players’ stats along with other options.
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My favorite contest entries this week are as follows:
- Mahomes lower than 4 rushing attempts & Jahmyr Gibbs higher than 30.5 receiving yards. (3X PAYOUT)
- Underdog is also running a special this week which gives you the ability to place an entry with Patrick Mahomes HIGHER than 0.5 passing yards. So my second underdog entry is Mahomes higher than 0.5 passing yards, Gibbs higher than 30.5 receiving yards & Richie James lower than 20.5 yards (6X PAYOUT, $10 MAX)
Remember To Use Code 10K when signing up!
-10 Units Last Year. New Year New Opportunity.
That’s right, if you just did the simple tasks of fading my picks I hand out every Thursday you would be up around 10 units just off my TNF blogs last year. The good news is I’m back and this year will not be the same. This is the year we will run hotter than the sun, it’s all about confidence. Here are my best bets for this Thursday’s Lions vs. Chiefs Game!
BTW, Week 1 = Double Up Week! 1 Bet = 2!
(All these odds via Bovada below)
1. Patrick Mahomes UNDER 3.5 Rushing Attempts +110 (1U) & Under 18.5 Rushing Yards +100 (1U)
Starting off our season we are technically betting against the GOAT, but in the manner of his rushing attempts. The more years he plays, the more protective I think he’s going to be over his body. To start the year last year he only attempted one rushing attempt, and throughout the entire year, he only eclipsed this number 5 times. Look for the same approach this year as the Chiefs will be looking to keep Mahomes as safe as possible.
Going off the same stats as the bet above, fewer carries = fewer yards, and although we could lose on only 1 long run. In the 17 regular season games last year he only went over 18.5 four times.
2. First Score FG +170 (1U) & First Turnover Fumble +155 (1U)
My favorite bet in the WORLD is back! If you followed my TNF betting blogs last year you know I am absolutely obsessed with betting these props. Why do I love these bets so much? Because they could both be over within the first 3 minutes of the game… or you might be watching in the 4th quarter completely oblivious that there hasn’t been a turnover yet. Can my favorite bets start us off on a good note this year? All it takes is 1/2, but 2/2 would put us on the MOON to start the year.
3. Isiah Pacheco O49.5 Rushing Yards -110 (1U) & Jerick Mckinnon U16.5 Rushing Yards -115 (1U)
To close out my week 1 double bets, we have one Chiefs running back over, while also backing it up with an under. To start we will be taking Isiah Pacheco’s O49.5 Rushing yards. Hopes are high for Pacheco after a breakout rookie year where he found himself finishing the year as the #1 back.
Starting in week 10 to end the regular season, Isiah Pacheco passed 49.5 8/9 weeks. He averaged 80 yards over that stretch, and I think his workload will only increase in his second year in the league. With all the eyes on the passing game, look for the Chiefs to take advantage by hammering the run game when Pacheco is in the game. This bet might hit on 1 rush attempt. For the record, I don’t like this bet…
(^^^ = Chiefs/Lions Bets #1 Pick)
To cap off our week 1 betting week we are going the opposite of what I said above and taking McKinnon under 16.5 rushing yards.
Is it scary taking this number? Fuck yes, everyone knows when he’s in the game = a passing play… which means all it takes is one HB draw and this bet could be toast. On the flip side? He might not rush the ball at all, and remember his rushing total is the SAME AS MAHOMES. Although he passed this number 7 times last year, I think we will see a regression with Jerick this year as Pacheco and Clyde are both fully healthy. In the last three weeks, he didn’t break 7 yards, and look for him to leave his mark on Thursday only in the passing game. Although this is my least favorite pick out of the 6, it doesn’t make me scared one bit to place this bet. Confidence is key, right?
Will This Be The Year The Faders Get What They Deserve?
Will this be the year we prove to the people I can win bets? I would love it if someone came out and openly said they fade my picks every week. Odds are you might finish the year + units…. but never underestimate me! I’m COMING! Let’s just pray my Lions and Chiefs Bets kick us off on a good note for the season.
Some people call me MarTy and some people call me Ryan. Wildcard when it comes to my writing. #FadeMe if I ever tweet out “locks”.