This week we have a defensive showdown when the Steelers venture into Cleveland to take on the Browns.In my blog for last Thursday’s game, I posted my first picks for 10K Takes. The game turned out to be great, as expected. But how were my bets? Here’s a quick recap of last week’s bets before we go into this week’s best bets.
1H U26.5 (1.5 Unit)
In my blog, I wrote I expected the score to be 3-0 after the first.. which is exactly what happened. There was a small sweat after two quick TD’s from each team to start the 2nd. The defenses held up as I expected and at half the score was 10-7. Easily cashing the 1H under.
Chargers +4 (1 Unit) & +175 ML (.5 Unit)For this pick last week I wrote +175 ML (also +4). To clarify, if I ever bet both ML and spread (with a underdog) I always have more units on the spread. Anyways, now back to my first good beat of the NFL season.
+4 was looking great early in the third and the ML was starting to look promising when the Chargers went up 17-7 with this amazing throw and catch.Patrick Mahomes quickly humbled my ML excitement when he made a pass that reminded everyone why they pay him half of a billion dollars.
After the Chiefs tied it early in the 4th with a FG, Herbert drove the Chargers down the field with ease…
Until this happened.
My +4 and ML bets went from insanely positive to straight trash in the matter of seconds.ESPN was also super quick to post their random no one gives a shit about this stat of the night.
The Chiefs also tagged on a late FG to go up 10, killing my ML dreams but setting up the perfect chance at a backdoor cover.
Thankfully, to my delight (and Cris Collinsworth’s, apparently) the Chargers drove down the field doing exactly that.
Few things beat hitting that back door cover, and few things suck more then losing on that backdoor cover. Thankfully I was on the right side for this one.
Yes- 2PT Conversion +265, (.5 Unit)
My third bet was a fun prop bet that unfortunately never had a chance because neither team attempted a 2 point conversion. My confidence level was high on this I threw .5 Units which was the same amount as my ML bet.
TNF Betting Record- (2-2) +1.5 Units
Steelers @ Browns Preview/Best Bets.
The last time the Steelers and Browns faced off on TNF, we got to experience one of the craziest things to happen in the historic rivalry.
I love how quick Rudolph goes to tattletale to the ref. Did he really think the ref wouldn’t see Myles Garret swinging a helmet straight at his head?
Both teams were 1-0 going into week 2, each coming off clutch game winning field goals
Both teams would lose one possession games in week 2, with the Browns proving to people they are still the Browns.
They were up 13 points when the Jets received the kick off with 1:55 left… The Jets got the quick score they needed with a long strike to Corey Davis.
Browns bettors (-6.5) were in shambles but everyone who picked them in survivor pools just needed a onside kick recovery and they were in the clear.
Unfortunately for the Browns, the Jets kicker took some notes from our very own onside kicking specialist, Coach Mike Hawk.
Executing perfectly in the clutch.
We all know what happens next… Typical Browns.
1. Steelers +5 (1 Unit)
Honestly, I’m not sure what to expect out of this game. The O/U is set at 38.5 which seems fitting for these two defensive minded teams. I decided to stay away from the total this week, but was favoring the over because a low scoring game between these two is almost too predictable. Then today I was scrolling through twitter when I came across this tweet.
The under is so obvious the over might be a play?
Instead of dealing with the confusion of the total, I decided to roll with the underdog again at +5 (bought half a point). 5 points seems like way too many points in a game expected to be low scoring. Am I getting trapped right now? Are the Browns actually the correct play? Nah. I’ll probably sprinkle a little bit on the ML for the Steelers but the safe bet is taking them with the points.
#2. First Score FG +120 (1.5 Units) & First Turnover Fumble +150 (1.5 Unit)
There are two more bets I’m going to clue you in on that I have a long history of betting. I absolutely love betting on the first score to be a Field Goal and betting on the first turnover. Both of these bets will come in at + money, so going 1/2 is considered a win.
Both teams have good defenses who can make the big stop in the red zone, so the first score FG seems like a surefire lock to me. The first turnover fumble scares me a little bit but something tells me that a strip sack could happen early. The best part about these bets is the game is intense right from the start. Just remember there’s nothing worse than a pick 6 which causes both bets to lose.
These are my two favorite bets of the week (1.5 Units on each) Nothing beats betting more on side bets then the spread.
#3. Chris Boswell O5.5 Total Points -105 (1 Unit)
For my third and final pick for this article I am going with O5.5 Points for Chris Boswell. Something just screams FG’s when I look at this game so I’m just going to stick with my original gut on these three picks. I don’t see any reason why Boswell wouldn’t get at least two attempts. My prediction is Boswell will be attempting a game winning FG at the end of this game.. Hopefully he already is over his 5.5 points needed by that time.
Just like last week, hopefully this article will help you win money. Good luck if you ride my picks, and hopefully you lose if you fade my picks.
Remember to always bet responsibly.
PS. Don’t be like my Dad who “couldn’t find the game” on cable last week. The game is streaming on Amazon Prime and only on Amazon Prime.
Some people call me MarTy and some people call me Ryan. Wildcard when it comes to my writing. #FadeMe if I ever tweet out “locks”.