UFC 283 Returns To Brazil. Best Bets & Predictions

This Saturday Brazil hosts their first PPV UFC event since UFC 237 back in 2019. It’s a PPV most have forgotten other than the main event, where we saw one of the best knockouts in UFC history.

Rose Namajunas headlined the main event defending her championship belt against Brazil’s own Jéssica Andrade. I’ll let the video do the talking, if your neck already hurts, don’t watch this.

My advice to all you fighters out there is never to let your opponent pick you up like this. It won’t end well.

UFC 283 = Brazilian Showcase?

15 fights, 17 Brazil fighters looking to make a name for themselves in their home country. If I blind bet every single Brazil fighter in every fight will I be profitable or lose money? As always the prelims are must-watch TV and will be broadcasted on one of ABC/ESPN/ESPN+.

UFC 283 Main Card

5 Fights and 2 belts on the line, all on PPV this Saturday. Need help picking who wins? Look no further. I’m here to save the day. If you missed my first UFC fight predictions I went 4-2 with 3 of those wins coming from underdogs.

Match 5: Paul Craig (+160) Vs Johnny Walker (-190)

Starting off the PPV, we have Paul Craig looking to silence the Brazil crowd in this light heavyweight matchup. Both of these fighters fought two times in 2022, each holding a record of 1-1. Both of these fighters have found success in opposite parts of their game. Paul Craig holds a record of 16-5-1, with none of his wins by decision. In his 16 wins, he has 13 submissions and his other 3 wins come by knockout. In his five losses, he’s been KO three times, and has only lost by submission once.

Walker on the other hand finds success in the striking game. Much like Paul Craig, Walker rarely finds himself going to the judge’s decision. Throughout his 19 wins, only one has come through a decision. Walker has finished 15 fights by knockout (4 losses), while also finding success in the ground game holding a record of 3-1 in fights determined by submission.

Prediction: Paul Craig wins this fight if he can take down Walker throughout this fight. Walker has a quick knockout ability but I think he will be too anxious starting the PPV in his home country. I think this fight will shock lots of people by how long it goes. As said above, neither of these fighters have had success going to the judge’s decision. Paul Craig wins this fight with a late second-round submission.

Best Bet: Over 1.5 Rounds (+145)

Match 4: Lauren Murphy (+380) Vs Jéssica Andrade (-500)

Is Lauren Murphy being overlooked because she’s fighting Andrade in her home country? If you saw the video above, I’m sure you would call me crazy for even thinking this… Murphy can win this fight. Lauren Murphy holds a record of 16-5 with 8 knockouts and 1 submission. She’s been in the UFC since 2014 and just two fights ago was fighting for the belt against Valentina Shevchenko. Murphy is 39 years old but her fighting over her last 5 fights has never looked better. She has no problem taking it to the judges which is exactly what she will have to do this weekend to secure the win IMO.

Jéssica Andrade on the other hand carries that Brazilian mindset that she will finish every fight whether it’s by knockout or submission. She is only 31 years old but yet finds herself with a record of 23-9. She’s only lost 4 fights since 2016, with all 4 of those losses coming at the hands of UFC Champions. She is 9-4 on fights that have ended with knockouts, while holding a much better record of 8-2 on fights decided by submissions. Can she continue her winning streak or will Lauren Murphy will off the upset?

Prediction: Lauren Murphy wins the fight if she makes it the distance (+700), the only problem is she won’t make it this distance. Andrade and her team will deliver as the big favorites winning this fight late first round, winning by TKO.

Best Bet: Jéssica Andrade By TKO/KO (+150)

Match 3: Neil Magny (+350) Vs Gilbert Burns (-450)

No stats for this fight, Gilbert Burns wins this fight no questions asked. Neil Magny has fought nearly 30 times on the UFC roster with this being his toughest test yet. Gilbert Burns has been one of the UFC’s best fighters since his hot streak started back in 2018. His only two losses since then have come at the hands of Kamaru Usman and Khamzat Chimaev. No way in a million years he losses this fight to Neil Magny.

Prediction: Burns wins this fight whichever way he chooses. Burns is going to put on a show in his home country, I’m just not sure if that comes by submission or knockout.

Best Bet: Gilbert Burns Wins Inside Distance (-110)

Co-Main Event: Brandon Moreno (-120) Vs Deiveson Figueiredo (+100) IIII

Is anyone else ready for these two to be done fighting? The first three fights were entertaining enough, but once these two are done on Saturday, I better never see them in a ring together again.

Here’s how the first three fights went.

UFC 256, Fight I: Potential Fight Of The Year, Ends In Draw.

Insane fight, ending in a non-controversial tie. Setting up one of my favorite moments ever in UFC history.

UFC 263, Fight II: Tijuana You Have A CHAMPION!!

The submission is great, but everything after that is why I love the UFC so much. The shock, the best commentators in the world, the crowd’s reaction, when Moreno finally realizes what he’s done, and then of course he delivers with the best post-fight interview… Brandon Moreno is one of the best in the business and this fight showed every reason why.

UFC 270, Fight III: Controversial Decision Gets Figueiredo His Belt Back

I love Brandon Moreno so I’ll always be biased but I don’t think he deserved to lose the belt. The fight was super close throughout the five rounds, but I guess this sets up the perfect 4th fight with the winner taking home the rivalry.

Prediction: My head is telling me Deiveson Figueiredo, but my heart just doesn’t wanna let that happen. I love Brandon Moreno but I sadly think that Figueiredo pulls out this win in his home country.

Best Bet: Figueiredo ML (+100), Sprinkle Win By Submission (+1000)

Main Event: Glover Teixeira (+115) Vs Jamahal Hill (-140)

Putting Glover Teixeira as an underdog in his home country? Bold move, bookmakers. I’m not saying it’s the wrong line, because Hill deserves every bit of respect for what he’s done in his short UFC career so far. Hill is yet another UFC product that was brought up through Dana White’s Contender Series. In his career, he holds an 11-1 record with 7 of those wins coming via KO.

Glover Teixeira on the other hand is another UFC legend who found his most success later in his career. Before joining the UFC in 2012, Glover found himself dominating different organizations, winning 15 straight fights. His hot streak continued once joining the UFC winning his first five fights, before falling in a title shot against Jon Jones. In 2019, we saw the resurgence of 39-year-old Glover Teixeira. Right when retirement seemed on the horizon Glover decided to turn back the clock rattling off 7 straight wins including winning the championship belt for the first time in his career (at age 42).

Glover wasn’t successful in defending his belt. In his first defense, he lost to a 5th-round submission to Jiří Procházka. Due to an injury, Glover has another chance to retain the currently vacant belt. He has his hands full with an upcoming star in Hill.

Prediction: Another fight that I can’t decide on. It’s hard to not love Glover mostly when he’s dominating at the age of 42. If Glover can get this fight to the ground Hill will find himself in loads of trouble. I’m actually going to go against my original thought and take old man Glover.

Best Bet: Over 1.5 Rounds (-120), Glover ML (+115)

Brazil Can’t Lose Parlay?

Is fighting in your home country an advantage or disadvantage? I think it has to be an advantage having everyone behind you, but could the nerves change your fight style enough to change the outcome? The only thing I don’t want to regret is not taking the Brazil “Main Card” Parlay. Yes, I just made it up, but it seems like something I’ll see on Twitter Saturday night. With all 5 Brazil fighters odds combined you get the parlay at +815. It’s worth the sprinkle, I have 4/5 winning outright anyways.

Can we start 2023 off on a hot note? Find out this Saturday at 9 pm CST.