UFC Fight Night Bets: LOCK OF THE YEAR

Gambling

We find ourselves one week away from UFC 289. If I don’t sound excited it’s because it’s the worst UFC PPV card in recent memory.

The good news is we have a phenomenal UFC fight night card tonight from top to bottom. So good I’m going to be previewing almost all the fights, including my UFC bet of the year.

UFC Fight Night

Reminder What My Bio Says: “#FadeMe If I Ever Tweet Out “Locks”.

Before I get into my bets I just want to remind everyone what my bio says. On our UFC 288 bet card, we went a disappointing 2-6 (-3 Units).

Anyways let’s get into my preview for UFC fight night this weekend.

Rundown

  • 13 Fights
  • Prelims: 5 PM/Main Card 8 PM (ESPN/ESPN+)
  • Tons of finishes?

Match 13: Philipe Lins (+120) VS Max Grishin (-150)

LOVE this fight to start the night. Lins and Grishin have both fought 4 times since making their transition to the UFC. They each hold a record of 2-2, but Lins has won two straight and has faced WAY tougher competition IMO.

Prediction: Philipe Lins starts the night quickly with a 1st round KO.

Best Bet: Philipe Lins (+125)

Match 12: Da’Mon Blackshear (+124) VS Luan Lacerda (-150)

Another fight that should deliver fireworks, but I really don’t know which way this one is going to go. I’m biased because I’m a fan of Blackshear, but he’s 0-1-1 in his two fights since joining the UFC, and his competition this week doesn’t get any easier. Lacerda is 0-1 since joining the UFC but holds a career record of 12-2.

Prediction: Lacerda is the smart bet here but I will never go against Blackshear. Give me him via split decision.

Best Bet: Blackshear (+124)

Match 11: Elise Reed (-130) VS Jinh Yu Frey (+106)

I’ve never watched either of these fighters compete so I can’t give any real knowledge. Elise Reed holds a record of 6-3 while Yu Frey is 11-8.

Prediction: Elise Reed has never lost two fights in a row and I think that continues against a struggling Yu Frey.

Best Bet: Elise Reed -130

Skipping Match 10 & 9 because I have no knowledge on those fighters.

Match 8: Andrei Arlovski (+102) VS Don’Tale Mayes (-115)

There are veterans in the fight game and then there is 44-YEAR-OLD Andrei Arlovski.

This Fight Marks His 40TH Career UFC FIGHT!

He has a career record of 34-21 (2 No Contests) and looks to continue his two-fight win streak.

Don’Tale Mays stands across from him in the ring and to be completely honest, I have zero idea who this guy is. He has a record of 11-6 and finds himself trying to bounce back from a decision loss in February.

Prediction: This fight will deliver fireworks with 1st round finish bound to happen. I’m backing the veteran, delivering with a 1st round KO.

Best Bet: Andrei Arlovski +102

Match 7: Daniel Santos (-200) VS Johnny Munoz (+170)

11-2 Daniel Santos takes on 12-2 Johnny Munoz in another prelim must-watch fight. Both fighters are 3-2 over their past 5 fights, and with a win this weekend could find themselves sniffing a future main card appearance.

Prediction: Daniel Santos is a great striker while Munoz holds the advantage in the ground game. I would rather have Munoz win but I’m just not sure if I can convince myself to bet on him...

Best Bet: Daniel Santos By Finish (No Lines Yet)

Match 6: Abubakar Nurmagomedov (-115) VS Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (-105)

Spoiler alert, this fight contains my UFC LOCK OF THE YEAR. How much I throw is still to be determined but holy smokes I’m gonna be disappointed when this backfires.

His name is Abubakar Nurmagomedov, aka the cousin of Khabib Nurmagomedov, meaning he instantly should be a -200 favorite. He holds a record of 17-3-1, my only concern here is I haven’t watched Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos fight since 2019.

Prediction: You just have to go with your gut and ride with Khabibs cousins. I always bet on any fighter who has his last name because you know ur winning percentage goes up about 30% just from the last name alone. I think his odds are way too good to not bet on submission at +1200 but ultimately think he gets the decision to win.

Best Bet: Abubakar Nurmagomedov -115

MAIN CARD

Match 5: Karine Silva (-245) VS Ketlen Souza (+186)

This has the potential to start this main card off on a huge note. Both of these Brazilian Women flyweights look to keep their impressive win streaks going.

Karine Silva is flying up the rankings with 6 straight wins ALL BY finishes (1 TKO, 5 Submissions). Her record sits at 15-4 with ALL HER WINS coming by finish.

Souza on the other hand holds a record of 13-4 but is making her UFC debut. Something about her fight style makes me think she can win this fight. She’s facing a submission specialist, can she keep this fight on her feet?

Prediction: No idea which way this is going to go. Either a Silva submission (+170) or a Souza statement win KO (+750).

Best Bet: U2.5 Rounds -120

Match 4: Tim Elliott (-190) VS Victor Altamirano (+155)

Another banger of a fight with the veteran Tim Elliott taking on Victor Altamirano. Love this fight and love the value they are giving us with the 12-2 Italian.

Prediction: Something about him just seems so calm and confident with how he’s fighting right now. Victor will battle this one out winning by decision. (+360)

Best Bet: Victor Altamirano +152

Match 3: Jim Miller (+155) VS Jared Gordon (-190)

Another veteran steps into the ring when Jim Miller looks to get back in the win column against Jared Gordon. Before his most recent loss, he had found himself on a three-fight win streak all within the distance.

The only reason why I know who Jared Gordon is, was from his fight last year against Paddy The Baddy. In his most recent fight against Bobby Green, he got knocked out but was later ruled an NC due to the head blow missed in live action.

Prediction: Started on Jim Miller and have flip-flopped back and forth about 10 times since. My mind has decided that Jared Gordon will finally dominate this fight, making Jim Miller bloody in the process.

Best Bet: Fight Goes Distance YES -125

Co-Main Event: Alex Caceres (-175) VS Daniel Pineda (+150)

The co-main event features two fighters both looking to keep the momentum going on their fight up the rankings. They both are coming off wins, granting them a chance to fight on the co-main event of a UFC fight night.

Prediction: Didn’t want to spend much time talking about this fight because I think both fighters will come out scared to lose. Vegas thinks this fight will end fast but I think Caceres will win by decision (+260).

Best Bet: Fight To Start Third Round -105

MAIN EVENT: Kai Kara-France (-115) VS Amir Albazi (-111)

FUCK another fight that I think each fighter can win. First, let’s appreciate how good of a fight this is. Kara-France has fought the toughest of competitions including recently when he got knocked out in the third round in a title fight against Brandon Moreno.

Nothing gets easier this weekend when he faces off against 16-1, Amir Albazi.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Hnto5D5o1bE

It’s his toughest test yet but something tells me he will get it done forcing Kara France to take a step back before taking his next step forward. Headlining a UFC fight night is just step one in his long-awaited career.

Prediction: Albazi will do as the video says and take this fight to the ground where he will eat away time happily handing this one to the judges (+440).

Best Bet: Fight To Go Distance +105 & Albazi by decision +440.

UFC FIGHT NIGHT BET CARD

  • Phillipe Lins +125 (1U)
  • Andrei Arlovski +102 (1.5U)
  • Abubakar Nurmagomedov -115 (5U)
  • Abubakar Nurmagomedov By Submission +1200 (.2U)
  • Silva Vs Souza Under 2.5 Rounds -120 (1U)
  • Victor Altamirano +152 (1U)
  • Fight To Start Third Round In Caceres Vs Pineda -105 (1U)
  • Kara-France Vs Albazi To Go Distance (+105) (1U)
  • Albazi By Decision +440 (.3U)
  • PARLAY: Nurmagomedov + Andrei Arlovski +280 (.5U)

Total Risk = 12.5U