Wisconsin stabbed me in the back last week during their first round loss to Ohio State. All they needed to do to dance, dance, dance in the NCAA tourney was win one game in the BIG10 tournament against the 2nd worst team in the conference. We’re not exactly talking about moving mountains here. You’d think you could get up for that game right? Instead, they went Bobby Boucher pre-Mud Dogs and got a can of whoop ass unleashed on them. Can’t get more down bad than 20 at halftime. NIT here we come.However, I woke up this morning feeling like a new man. The stench of mediocrity that Wisconsin left me with has finally lifted. I could smell the flowers, see the sunshine, and sense the beautiful opportunity this week brings. It’s March Madness time baby. Let’s get down to business.
Before anybody tries to trick or scam you into buying their March Madness picks, let me tell you something. There’s only 7 teams that can win the tournament. Technically, yes, all 64 teams could win the tournament. Realistically, you can shout, shout, let it all out as much as you want, but the College of Charleston’s and Oral Roberts’ of the world don’t stand a chance. The statistics say it all.
Teams That Can Win the NCAA Tourney:Teams within the Top 40 Offensive Efficiency and Top 22 Defensive Efficiency:
- Houston (+550)
- Kansas (+800)
- Alabama (+800)
- UCLA (+1200)
- UConn (+1600)
- Texas (+1600)
- Creighton (+4000)
That’s the list. However, I do want to make three things known. First, I realize there’s not a lot of excitement listed above, but gambling’s not about enjoyment. It’s about always winning no matter what, and that’s exactly what we intend to do. Second, just because something’s from Tik Tok, that doesn’t make it false. Social media never lies, outside of Facebook. We all know that. Lastly, and most importantly, the odds aren’t in our favor. Let me explain.We’re left with two choices, one riskier and one safer. As we all know, no bet is you proof. But if the stars would’ve aligned, we could’ve just put a unit on each team above and let things play out. Unfortunately, Houston’s +550 line makes it tough because if they won, we’d be out 0.5 units. Although, if we assume the betting favorite doesn’t often win, now we’re talking.
The Plan to Win the NCAA Tourney:
Always perform at your own risk in a safe and legal way, but here’s the plan. 1 unit on each team above minus Houston gives us the following payouts:
- Kansas (+3u)
- Alabama (+3u)
- UCLA (+7u)
- UConn (+11u)
- Texas (+11u)
- Creighton (+35u)
Don’t forget though, if Houston wins, we’re down 6 units. Hopefully, that doesn’t happen. We’d be DB. That’s down bad for those who don’t know. Now, if you subtract each of the above payouts by 1 unit, that’s what you’d get if you bet Houston to lower the risk in case they win. Can you remember, there are 57 other teams out there, but the statistics over the last few decades say teams don’t win unless they fit the category above. So we’re rolling baby.
I’m just the ugly stepson of the 10K family. Part Minnesotan, Part Wisconsinite. Half best friend, half mortal enemy. Can’t live with me, can’t live without me.