It may only be week 5, but I feel like I’ve seen Russ on my TV screen way too much for being a non-Broncos fan. Yes, they play in the most entertaining division, and yes they have the king of cringe island, but three times in the first 5 weeks?
Is Amazon Prime stopping you from watching the Broncos this week? Don’t worry there’s always next Monday, when the Broncos have yet ANOTHER primetime game.
Before we dive into the Colts @ Broncos matchup I regretfully have to go over my picks from last week. If you decided to follow my picks last week, I’m sorry. If there’s anyone out there who faded me, you’re welcome for building your bankroll to start the football weekend.
1. Bengals 1H -3 (2 Units), Bengals -3.5 (1 Unit)Good News? The Bengals covered the full game spread. Bad News? Having an extra unit on the 1H which they blew with 9 seconds left in the half.
Teddy just had to break my heart while I was standing on third, running in softball. I knew the half was dwindling down but all I could hear is “Edmonds, can he get in? He spins, he can”. Losing a bet like this hurts but it hurts even more (spoiler alert) when you are now 0/4 on ur bets BEFORE halftime. The Bengals outscored the Dolphins 13-3 in the 2H, easily covering the spread but the damage had been done well before then.
2. Result Of Dolphins First Drive- Punt (-130)Last week I said, “These quick bets hurt if they lose, but nothing beats that quick adrenaline rush it delivers”. I 100% wish I never said this statement. There was nothing fun about watching the Dolphins take two plays and be in FG territory. Nothing to say other than this bet was a big fat loser and will not be finding its way onto my betting card anytime soon.
3. First Score FG +145 (1.5 Units) & First Turnover Fumble +155 (1.5 Units)
Believe it or not, both of these bets were also lost before the 2nd quarter even started. The Bengals received the opening kickoff and instantly drove down the field into scoring territory. An unnecessary roughness call helped the Bengals get into the red zone, where a couple of plays later Joe Mixon would open the scoring. Sending my First Score FG bet straight to the trash.Just like last week though, you can’t give up hope. All you need is 1/2 to hit, unfortunately, Tua would crush all my dreams because he can’t throw a ball far to save his life.
The fastest WR in football streaking down the field but Tua can’t throw a ball over 50 yards if his life depended on it.
0/3 for -4 units before the second quarter starts is always good right?
Week 4 Results: -6 Units
Betting PreviewThe pressure is on this week, any person with a working pulse would be stupid not to fade me right now…
I’ve typed three TNF articles and am down -6 Units.
Just because I write blogs about gambling doesn’t mean I have to be good at it. Right? Sometimes all you need is a little reassurance which I went out seeking for this week. First I went to the eye doctor even though I know my eyes are perfectly fine. When you’re reading the board terribly what’s better for your ego than hearing the doc say “Your eyes are perfect, you should be seeing the board crystal clear”.
The other thing I did was have one of those crystal ball freaks show me the winning ways. Walking into the voodoo room I was unsure If I was going to even place bets for this week’s game. Voodoo girl quickly showed me why I’m paying her, reminding me what next week’s game holds. Commanders @ Bears YUCK. After working past my doubt on if I should take a week off from these, she quickly reassured me that winning plays were on the horizon for week 5.
Here are my best bets Presented By Crystal Ball Lady.
1. Broncos -2.5 1H (1 Unit)
Through 4 TNF Games, there are some trends starting to happen that people will start to take notice of. Road Teams are 2-1-1 on the 1H ML, while also going 4-0 with the spread. Broncos -2.5 1H seems almost too easy, mostly if you watched how the Colts started their game last week. With their slow start last week + the trend given above my first initial thought was to take Colts 1H, Vegas wants you to bet on the Broncos. The crystal ball lady quickly changed all doubt in my mind when she showed the Broncos walking to the locker room at the half with a 6-point lead. The road team can’t win all the 1H bets right? Don’t overthink this and RIDEEEEE the Broncos 1H with me.
2. First Score FG +120 (2.5U) & First Turnover Fumble +155 (2.5U)
Alright, these bets may be considered an addiction at this point. Last week in my blog I said expect to find these two bets every week until it goes 0/2.. which is exactly what happened last week. Usually, what happens is I end up not betting it one week and guess what? They both end up hitting. So with the help of voodoo lady we decided to go 2.5 units on each of these all outta revenge. I have red eyes waiting for my revenge this week, but to be honest I’m scared and demoralized by this bet. We are due for a green sweep and the crystal ball girl said so. Just start the game with a field goal so we at least win a little please.
3. Alec Pierce O.34.5 (1 Unit) & Mo Allie Cox O18.5 Receiving (1Unit)
With the news of Jonathan Taylor being out, the receiving core value skyrockets. When JT is on the field you know the Colts have to feed him the ball. Without the ability to hand it off to JT 20+ times the Colts will have to look for offense elsewhere. Honestly I think the value on all Colt’s receivers props are valuable because they have about 5 receivers who all do the same thing. Alec Pierce is a young rookie who has quickly climbed his way to the #2 spot on the depth chart. Over his last two games he has put up stat lines of 3/60 and 4/80, including longs of 30-44. His production in the offense should keep growing mostly with the instability of all the other receivers. Mo Allie Cox also had a his best week last week reeling in all 6 targets for 84 Yards and 2TD’s. He’s always skeptical because he’s a player who can put up a 1/6 game any given week. My hope is Matt Ryan finally realized he has a 6’6″ tight end who played 4 years of basketball in his time at VCU. Take the two carrying the most momentum from last week mostly when their best offensive player is out.
Like always good luck if you ride my picks, and hopefully you lose if you’re fading my picks.
Always Bet Responsibly.
Some people call me MarTy and some people call me Ryan. Wildcard when it comes to my writing. #FadeMe if I ever tweet out “locks”.